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---
name: risk-assessment
version: 1.0.0
category: engineering
description: Perform probabilistic risk assessment with Monte Carlo simulations for
offshore marine operations
type: reference
capabilities: []
requires: []
tags: []
scripts_exempt: true
---
# Risk Assessment
## When to Use This Skill
Use this skill when you need to:
- Perform Monte Carlo simulations for uncertainty quantification
- Calculate system reliability and failure probabilities
- Conduct sensitivity analysis to identify critical parameters
- Create risk matrices for hazard assessment
- Perform probabilistic design and analysis
- Quantify uncertainties in marine operations
- Make decisions under uncertainty with risk metrics
- Validate designs against reliability targets
## Core Knowledge Areas
### 1. Monte Carlo Simulation
Basic Monte Carlo framework:
```python
import numpy as np
from scipy import stats
from dataclasses import dataclass
from typing import Callable, Dict, List, Tuple, Optional
import pandas as pd
@dataclass
*See sub-skills for full details.*
### 2. Reliability Analysis
Calculate reliability and failure probability:
```python
def calculate_reliability(
response_data: np.ndarray,
limit_state: float,
mode: str = 'less_than'
) -> dict:
"""
Calculate reliability from Monte Carlo results.
*See sub-skills for full details.*
### 3. Sensitivity Analysis
Identify critical parameters:
```python
def sensitivity_analysis_correlation(
inputs: Dict[str, np.ndarray],
output: np.ndarray
) -> pd.DataFrame:
"""
Sensitivity analysis using correlation coefficients.
*See sub-skills for full details.*
### 4. Risk Matrices and Hazard Assessment
```python
from enum import Enum
class Severity(Enum):
"""Consequence severity levels."""
NEGLIGIBLE = 1
MINOR = 2
MODERATE = 3
MAJOR = 4
CATASTROPHIC = 5
*See sub-skills for full details.*
### 5. Extreme Value Analysis
```python
from scipy.stats import genextreme
def fit_extreme_value_distribution(
data: np.ndarray,
method: str = 'gev'
) -> dict:
"""
Fit extreme value distribution to data.
*See sub-skills for full details.*
## Complete Examples & Well Planning Context
See [references/examples.md](references/examples.md) for complete mooring system risk assessment examples and well planning risk context (actionability gap, risk authority tiers, structured escalation, risk influence maps).
## Resources
See [references/resources.md](references/resources.md) for textbooks, standards, and software references.
---
**Use this skill for:** Expert probabilistic risk assessment and reliability analysis for marine and offshore systems with comprehensive uncertainty quantification.
## Sub-Skills
- [1. Sample Size Selection (+1)](1-sample-size-selection/SKILL.md)
