Identify Risky Assumptions

---
name: identify-risky-assumptions
description: >-
  Lists and rates the risky assumptions behind a product idea or feature: 8 risk categories for a
  new venture, or the 4 core risks for a feature, each with confidence and a test. Use when the
  user asks for the riskiest assumptions, an assumption map or risk assessment, devil's advocate
  on a feature, or why an idea might fail. Not for falsifying the few beliefs a chosen plan rests
  on (use falsify-plan-assumptions).
---

## Identify Assumptions (New Product or Existing-Product Feature)

Comprehensive risk identification across 8 categories — extending the 4 core product risks (Teresa Torres, *Continuous Discovery Habits*) with Ethics, Go-to-Market, Strategy & Objectives, and Team risks that are critical for new products.

### Context

You are evaluating assumptions for a new product: **$ARGUMENTS**.

If the user provides files (business plans, research), read them first.

### Domain Context

**The 4 core product risks** (Teresa Torres, *Continuous Discovery Habits*): Value, Usability, Viability, Feasibility.

**For new products, extend to 8 risk categories.** Good teams assume at least three-quarters of their ideas won't perform as they hope.

### Instructions

The user will describe the product concept, target segment, and feature idea. Work through these steps:

1. **Think from three perspectives** about why this product might fail:
   - **Product Manager**: Market demand, willingness to pay, competitive landscape
   - **Designer**: First-time user experience, onboarding, engagement
   - **Engineer**: Build vs. buy decisions, scalability, technical debt

2. **Identify assumptions across 8 risk categories**:

   - **Value**: Will it create value for customers? Will they keep using it?
   - **Usability**: Will people figure out how to use it? Can we onboard them fast enough? Will it increase cognitive load?
   - **Viability**: Can we sell/monetize/finance it? Is it worth the cost? Can we support customers and help them succeed? Can we scale? Will it be compliant?
   - **Feasibility**: Can we do it with the current technology? Is this integration possible? Can it be efficient? Can we scale it?
   - **Ethics**: Should we do it at all? Are there any ethical considerations? Will it pose a risk for our customers?
   - **Go-to-Market** (especially critical for new products): Can we market it? Do we have the required channels? Can we convince customers to try it? Is this the right messaging for this channel? Is this the right time? Is this the right way to launch it?
   - **Strategy & Objectives**: What are our assumptions? Can others copy our strategy? Have we considered political, economic, legal, technological, and environmental factors? Are those the best problems to solve?
   - **Team**: How well will the team work together? Do we have the right people? Do we have the right tools? Will the entire team stay with us long enough?

3. **For each assumption**, rate confidence and suggest a test.

Think step by step. Save as markdown.

### Mode: Feature Idea in an Existing Product

When the user is stress-testing a feature for a product that already exists (they describe the product, objective, segment and feature), run a narrower devil's-advocate pass:

1. Argue why the feature might fail from three perspectives: **PM** (viability, market fit, strategic alignment), **Designer** (usability, adoption barriers), **Engineer** (feasibility, performance, integration).
2. Cover only the **4 core risks**: Value (does it solve a real problem?), Usability (is the learning curve acceptable?), Viability (can marketing, sales, finance and legal support it?), Feasibility (existing tech, integration risks). Ethics, GTM, Strategy and Team usually already hold for a live product; add them only if the feature changes them.
3. For each assumption note what specifically could go wrong, confidence (High/Medium/Low) and a suggested test.

Be thorough but constructive: the goal is to strengthen the idea, not kill it. If the user provides designs, PRDs or research, read them first.

---

### Further Reading

- [How to Manage Risks as a Product Manager](https://www.productcompass.pm/p/how-to-manage-risks-as-a-product-manager)

- [Assumption Prioritization Canvas: How to Identify And Test The Right Assumptions](https://www.productcompass.pm/p/assumption-prioritization-canvas)
- [What Is Product Discovery? The Ultimate Guide Step-by-Step](https://www.productcompass.pm/p/what-exactly-is-product-discovery)
- [Continuous Product Discovery Masterclass (CPDM)](https://www.productcompass.pm/p/cpdm) (video course)