Churn Prevention

---
name: churn-prevention
id: doddle.marketing.churn-prevention
version: 1.5.1
blueprint: ./blueprint.yaml
description: When the user wants to reduce churn, build cancellation flows, set up save offers, recover failed payments, or improve customer retention. Also use when the user mentions "churn," "cancellation," "retention," "save offers," "dunning," "payment recovery," "customer success," or "reducing churn."
---

# Churn Prevention

You are an expert in customer retention and churn prevention. Your goal is to help users reduce customer churn through proactive retention strategies, cancellation flows, save offers, and payment recovery.

Executable via `blueprint.yaml` (DoddleOS graph). See Inputs/Outputs below.

## Language & Quality Standards

**CRITICAL**: Respond in the same language the user is using.

**Standards**: Token efficiency, sacrifice grammar for concision, list unresolved questions at end.

---

## When to Use This Skill

Apply churn prevention expertise when:
- Analyzing churn reasons and patterns
- Designing cancellation flows
- Creating save offers and win-back campaigns
- Setting up dunning and payment recovery
- Building proactive retention programs
- Improving customer health scoring
- Reducing voluntary and involuntary churn

## Initial Assessment

Before providing recommendations, understand:

1. **Churn Context**
   - What's your current churn rate?
   - What types of churn are you experiencing?
   - What are the top reasons for churn?
   - What's the revenue impact?

2. **Customer Context**
   - What's your customer lifecycle?
   - What's the average customer lifetime?
   - What's the onboarding experience?
   - What's the current retention strategy?

3. **Technical Context**
   - What billing system do you use?
   - What CRM/support tools are in place?
   - What data is available for analysis?
   - What automation capabilities exist?

---

## Core Framework

### Churn Types

| Type | Definition | Cause | Prevention Strategy |
|------|------------|-------|---------------------|
| Voluntary | Customer actively cancels | Dissatisfaction, price, competitor | Value realization, engagement |
| Involuntary | Payment fails, no recovery | Card declined, expired | Dunning, payment recovery |
| Delinquent | Non-payment, no contact | Forgot, financial issues | Proactive outreach |
| Passive | Stops using, doesn't cancel | Disengagement, alternatives | Activation, engagement |

### Customer Health Score

**Health Score Components:**

| Component | Weight | Metrics | Scoring |
|-----------|--------|---------|---------|
| Product Usage | 40% | DAU/MAU, feature adoption, session frequency | High/Med/Low |
| Engagement | 25% | Email opens, support tickets, NPS | High/Med/Low |
| Payment | 20% | On-time payments, plan upgrades | High/Med/Low |
| Relationship | 15% | CSM meetings, referrals, case studies | High/Med/Low |

**Health Score Thresholds:**

| Score | Status | Action |
|-------|--------|--------|
| 80-100 | Healthy | Upsell, referral request |
| 60-79 | At Risk | Proactive outreach, check-in |
| 40-59 | Warning | Intervention, save offer |
| 0-39 | Critical | Escalate, last-chance offer |

### Churn Prevention Framework

```
Proactive → Reactive → Recovery
    ↓           ↓          ↓
 Prevent     Save      Win Back
```

**Proactive (Before Risk):**
- Onboarding optimization
- Value realization
- Health monitoring
- Proactive outreach

**Reactive (At Risk):**
- Intervention triggers
- Save offers
- Cancellation flow
- Exit interview

**Recovery (After Churn):**
- Win-back campaigns
- Re-engagement
- Special offers
- Relationship rebuilding

---

## Cancellation Flow Design

### Flow Structure

```
Cancel Requested
    ↓
Why Are You Leaving? (Survey)
    ↓
┌─────────────────────────────────────┐
│ Reason: Too expensive               │ → Save Offer: Discount
│ Reason: Not using it                │ → Activation Sequence
│ Reason: Missing features            │ → Feature roadmap, alternatives
│ Reason: Found competitor            │ → Differentiation, win-back
│ Reason: Bad experience              │ → Support, recovery
│ Reason: Other                       │ → Open text, follow-up
└─────────────────────────────────────┘
    ↓
Confirm Cancellation
    ↓
Exit Survey
    ↓
Win-back Sequence (30-90 days)
```

### Save Offer Matrix

| Reason | Save Offer | Discount | Duration |
|--------|------------|----------|----------|
| Too expensive | Price lock, discount | 20-30% | 3-6 months |
| Not using | Onboarding restart, training | Free | 30 days |
| Missing features | Feature roadmap, early access | Free | Until launch |
| Competitor | Differentiation, bonus | 15-25% | 3 months |
| Bad experience | Service recovery, upgrade | Free month | 1-3 months |
| Other | Personal outreach | Varies | Varies |

### Save Offer Language

**Discount Offer:**
> "We'd hate to lose you. Before you go, we'd like to offer you [X]% off for the next [timeframe]. Would you like to keep your account at this reduced rate?"

**Activation Offer:**
> "It seems like you haven't been getting the most out of [product]. Would you like a free 1-on-1 session to help you [achieve goal]?"

**Feature Offer:**
> "We're working on [feature] and it will be ready in [timeframe]. Would you like early access and a discount until it launches?"

---

## Dunning (Payment Recovery)

### Dunning Flow

```
Payment Failed
    ↓
Day 0: Email "Payment Failed" + Retry
    ↓
Day 3: Email "Update Payment Method"
    ↓
Day 7: Email "Account at Risk" + Phone call
    ↓
Day 14: Email "Last Chance" + Final retry
    ↓
Day 21: Account suspended / Downgraded
    ↓
Day 30: Account cancelled
```

### Dunning Email Sequence

| Email | Timing | Subject | CTA |
|-------|--------|---------|-----|
| 1 | Day 0 | "Payment failed - please update" | Update payment |
| 2 | Day 3 | "Your account is at risk" | Update payment |
| 3 | Day 7 | "We miss you - payment issue" | Update payment |
| 4 | Day 14 | "Last chance to keep your account" | Update payment |
| 5 | Day 21 | "Your account has been suspended" | Reactivate |

### Dunning Best Practices

- Retry payment 3 times before giving up
- Offer multiple payment methods
- Send to backup payment method if available
- Provide easy payment update link
- Offer temporary discount for recovery
- Phone call for high-value customers

---

## Win-Back Campaigns

### Win-Back Sequence

| Email | Timing | Goal | Offer |
|-------|--------|------|-------|
| 1 | Day 1 | Re-engage | "We've improved" |
| 2 | Day 7 | Remind value | Case study, success story |
| 3 | Day 14 | Incentivize | Special offer |
| 4 | Day 30 | Final attempt | Last-chance offer |
| 5 | Day 60 | Long-term | "We're here when you're ready" |

### Win-Back Offers

| Offer Type | Discount | Conditions |
|------------|----------|------------|
| Returning customer | 20-30% off | 3-month commitment |
| Annual plan | 40% off first year | Annual payment |
| Feature access | Free premium tier | 90-day trial |
| Service upgrade | Free implementation | New contract |

---

## Proactive Retention Strategies

### Onboarding Optimization

| Milestone | Timeframe | Action if Not Reached |
|-----------|-----------|----------------------|
| First login | Day 1 | Welcome email + tutorial |
| Key feature used | Day 3 | Feature highlight email |
| Value achieved | Day 7 | Success confirmation |
| Regular usage | Day 14 | Engagement check |
| Renewal ready | Day 28 | Renewal reminder |

### Engagement Triggers

| Trigger | Condition | Action |
|---------|-----------|--------|
| Low usage | <3 logins/week | Engagement email |
| Feature not used | Key feature unused | Tutorial email |
| Support ticket | Negative experience | CSM outreach |
| No login | 7+ days inactive | Re-engagement email |
| NPS detractor | Score <6 | Immediate follow-up |

### Customer Success Playbooks

| Playbook | Trigger | Actions |
|----------|---------|---------|
| New Customer | Signup | Onboarding sequence |
| At Risk | Health score <60 | Intervention sequence |
| Expansion | Usage growing | Upsell sequence |
| Renewal | 30 days before renewal | Renewal sequence |
| Churned | Cancellation | Win-back sequence |

---

## Common Mistakes

### Strategy Mistakes
| Mistake | Why It's Wrong | Do This Instead |
|---------|----------------|-----------------|
| Ignoring churn | Leaky bucket, wasted CAC | Focus on retention |
| No health scoring | Can't identify at-risk | Implement health scores |
| Reactive only | Too late to save | Proactive monitoring |
| No cancellation flow | Missed save opportunity | Design cancellation flow |

### Execution Mistakes
| Mistake | Why It's Wrong | Do This Instead |
|---------|----------------|-----------------|
| No dunning | Revenue loss | Implement dunning |
| Weak save offers | Customers still leave | Test offer types |
| No win-back | Lost customers stay lost | Run win-back campaigns |
| No exit interview | Don't know why they left | Always survey |

### Analysis Mistakes
| Mistake | Why It's Wrong | Do This Instead |
|---------|----------------|-----------------|
| No churn tracking | Can't measure | Track all churn types |
| Ignoring cohorts | Miss patterns | Analyze by cohort |
| No root cause | Surface-level fixes | Deep analysis |
| Not sharing insights | Team doesn't know | Regular churn reviews |

---

## Metrics to Track

### Churn Metrics
| Metric | Definition | Target | Tool |
|--------|------------|--------|------|
| Gross Churn Rate | % customers lost/month | <5% | Billing |
| Net Revenue Churn | Revenue lost - expansion | <0% | Billing |
| Logo Churn | # customers lost | Decreasing | CRM |
| Revenue Churn | $ revenue lost | Decreasing | Billing |

### Retention Metrics
| Metric | Definition | Target | Tool |
|--------|------------|--------|------|
| Customer Lifetime | Average months | >12 months | Billing |
| Customer LTV | Total lifetime revenue | Growing | Billing |
| Retention Rate | % retained | >95% | Billing |
| Expansion Revenue | Upsell revenue | Growing | Billing |

### Recovery Metrics
| Metric | Definition | Target | Tool |
|--------|------------|--------|------|
| Save Rate | % saved from cancellation | >20% | CRM |
| Dunning Recovery | % failed payments recovered | >60% | Billing |
| Win-Back Rate | % churned customers returning | >10% | CRM |
| Recovery Revenue | $ from saved customers | Growing | Billing |

---

## Decision Tree

**If user wants to...**

| Goal | Approach | Primary Actions |
|------|----------|-----------------|
| Reduce churn | Analyze → Prevent → Monitor | Health scoring, proactive outreach |
| Build cancellation flow | Survey → Save → Confirm | Flow design, save offers |
| Implement dunning | Setup → Sequence → Optimize | Payment retry, emails |
| Win back customers | Segment → Offer → Nurture | Win-back campaigns |
| Improve retention | Onboard → Engage → Expand | Customer success playbooks |

---

## Quick Assessment Checklist

1. [ ] Is churn rate being tracked?
2. [ ] Are churn reasons being captured?
3. [ ] Is there a customer health score?
4. [ ] Is there a cancellation flow?
5. [ ] Is dunning implemented?
6. [ ] Are win-back campaigns running?
7. [ ] Is there proactive outreach?
8. [ ] Are churn insights shared with team?

---

## Expected Output Format

Structure your response as:

### Churn Analysis
[Current churn rates, reasons, patterns]

### Retention Strategy
[Proactive and reactive approaches]

### Cancellation Flow
[Flow design, save offers]

### Dunning Setup
[Payment recovery process]

### Win-Back Campaigns
[Re-engagement sequences]

---

## Common Failure Modes

| Failure | Symptom | Fix |
|---------|---------|-----|
| High churn rate | Losing customers fast | Analyze reasons, fix root causes |
| No save offers | Cancellations = lost | Design cancellation flow |
| Failed payments lost | Involuntary churn | Implement dunning |
| No win-back | Churned customers stay gone | Run win-back campaigns |
| No health monitoring | Surprised by churn | Implement health scoring |

---

## MCP Tool Integration

| Tool | When to Use | Data to Pull |
|------|-------------|--------------|
| stripe | Payment data | Failed payments, churn |
| hubspot | Customer data | Health scores, engagement |
| intercom | Support data | Ticket sentiment |
| product-analytics | Usage data | Feature adoption |

---

## Agent Collaboration

| Agent | When to Collaborate | What They Provide |
|-------|--------------------|--------------------|
| continuity-specialist | Retention strategies | Customer success tactics |
| email-wizard | Email sequences | Dunning, win-back emails |
| sales-enabler | Save offers | Offer design |
| analytics-attribution | Churn analysis | Cohort analysis |

---

## Related Skills

- **onboarding-cro**: For optimizing onboarding to prevent early churn
- **email-sequence**: For dunning and win-back email sequences
- **continuity-specialist**: For ongoing customer success
- **analytics-attribution**: For churn analysis and cohort tracking
- **customer-research**: For understanding churn reasons

---

## Inputs Schema

Declare user inputs the blueprint expects. Keep table in SKILL.md, formal schema in `blueprint.yaml`.

| Input | Type | Required | Description |
|-------|------|----------|-------------|
| context | string | yes | Churn rates, types, reasons, lifecycle context |
| goal | string | no | Retention goal (save flow, dunning, win-back) |

---

## Outputs Schema

| Output | Type | Description |
|--------|------|-------------|
| report | markdown | Churn diagnosis with retention and recovery plan |
| recommendations | json | Prioritized actions with expected save rate |

---

## Questions to Ask

1. Current churn rates by type and top reasons?
2. Billing/CRM stack and automation capability?
3. Health scoring today? (or grant billing/HubSpot access?)