Claude Skills by lev-os

What cannot be settled by experiment is not worth debating

When combining different elements creates properties greater than the sum of individual parts

A preference for known risks over unknown risks, even when expected values are equivalent

Solve novel problems by noticing structural parallels with solved problems from different domains and mapping solution elements across contexts

First information disproportionately influences judgments and decisions, even when the initial value is arbitrary or irrelevant

Four-quadrant growth strategy framework mapping risk-return tradeoffs across market penetration, market development, product development, and diversification

Systems that don't just withstand shocks and volatility but actively gain strength from them

Guard against the tendency to perceive meaningful connections between unrelated things by demanding evidence of actual causal relationships before acting on perceived patterns

Profit from price differences of identical assets across markets by buying low in one and selling high in another

W3C standard for making web applications accessible to assistive technologies through semantic roles, properties, and states

Recognize when marketplace value saturates after reaching liquidity threshold, requiring non-network moats when doubling supply no longer improves user experience

Current thoughts and preoccupations disproportionately affect what we notice, leading us to selectively perceive information that matches our mental focus

A state or set of states toward which a dynamical system naturally evolves over time, regardless of where it starts

Two rational Bayesian agents with the same prior beliefs cannot agree to disagree if their posterior beliefs are common knowledge

Self-sustaining chemical reaction networks where molecules collectively catalyze each other's formation from basic building blocks

Correct probability and frequency judgments distorted by mentally available examples by seeking base rate data before relying on vivid anecdotes

When you need to plan backward from an ambitious future goal to identify required steps

Start from desired future state and work backwards to map pathways when current trajectory leads to unacceptable outcomes requiring transformational change

Create client-specific backend services that aggregate and transform data from downstream microservices to match each frontend's unique needs

Systematic trial-and-error search technique that builds solutions incrementally, abandoning candidates as soon as they cannot lead to a valid solution

Recognize and counteract the tendency to adopt beliefs or behaviors simply because others are doing so, independent of underlying evidence

Start with statistical baseline frequencies before considering individual case details - combat base rate neglect by anchoring on "what usually happens"

Ignoring statistical base rates in favor of vivid case-specific information when assessing probability

Statistical frequency of events in a reference class that provides the starting point for predictions before considering specific case details

When you need practitioner-tested principles for calm, sustainable company building

Machine learning inference pattern where predictions are generated for large datasets at scheduled intervals rather than in real-time

Update probability estimates as new evidence emerges - prior beliefs + likelihood of evidence = refined posterior probability

Systematically update your confidence in hypotheses as new evidence arrives, weighting both prior beliefs and new information by their respective reliability

Prioritize resource allocation across business units by classifying them based on market growth rate and relative market share

Bridge communication gap between technical and business stakeholders using Given-When-Then scenarios in plain language

Recognize that value of beliefs and ideas increases with adoption, creating momentum for ideas regardless of intrinsic truth

When variety of life forms within a system creates resilience and stability

Rare, high-impact, unpredictable events disproportionately shape history, markets, and systems

When a production incident occurs - systematic incident analysis that focuses on systems over people to prevent recurrence

When harmful or undesired effects can be converted into benefits

Create uncontested market space where competition becomes irrelevant, simultaneously pursuing differentiation and low cost through value innovation

When identifying and addressing the constraining factor yields disproportionate system improvement

Measure forecasting accuracy by calculating mean squared error between predicted probabilities and outcomes when improving calibration through systematic feedback

When improving forecast accuracy requires balancing how well predictions match reality vs. how well they distinguish between outcomes

Align predicted probabilities with actual outcomes - train yourself so things you say are 70% likely actually happen 70% of the time

Identify maximum sustainable load, population size, or growth limits constrained by available resources to prevent overshoot and collapse - apply capacity planning, scalability analysis, and bottleneck identification when managing infrastructure, organizations, or systems approaching resource constraints

Identify and deploy small interventions that lower activation energy for desired change without being consumed - accelerate reactions that would happen anyway

Plan and execute multi-generational projects you won't live to see completed, laboring in the present for future glory and legacy

Map cause-and-effect relationships with reinforcing/balancing feedback loops to visualize system structure and predict behavior patterns

Hierarchical root cause investigation technique that maps all necessary and sufficient conditions leading to an adverse event using tree-structured logic

Strategic framework for identifying the critical source of strength or competitive advantage that, if eliminated or neutralized, leads to decisive advantage or system collapse

When one event triggers another in a self-sustaining sequence, creating exponential effects

When questioning assumptions or escaping current thinking patterns reveals breakthrough insights

Root cause investigation method that identifies the cause of problems by comparing the current failed state to a previous problem-free state to isolate what changed

Tiny changes in initial conditions of complex systems lead to drastically different outcomes over time, making long-term prediction impossible