Evaluate Scenario Impact

---
name: evaluate-scenario-impact
description: "Evaluate a fixed candidate, research path, or portfolio under one explicit scenario using stable criteria and return impact, tradeoffs, and failure triggers."
---

# evaluate-scenario-impact
## Purpose
Evaluate one fixed candidate, path, or portfolio under one explicit scenario.
## Input contract
```yaml
required: [candidate, scenario, evaluation_criteria]
optional: [baseline, metric_definitions, vulnerability_rules]
constraints: [criteria, units, and scenario assumptions remain fixed during evaluation]
```
## Procedure
1. Instantiate the candidate under scenario assumptions.
2. Compute or qualitatively assess each declared criterion.
3. Identify tradeoffs, vulnerabilities, and failure triggers.
4. Return impact evidence and unresolved uncertainties.

If the impact estimate depends on uncertain drivers or parameter choices, consider `assess-sensitivity` as the next tactic.

## Output contract
```yaml
produces: [impact_assessment, metric_results, tradeoffs, vulnerabilities, failure_triggers]
delta_fields: [findings, uncertainties, decisions]
```
## Quality gates
- All declared criteria are addressed with units or explicit qualitative scales.
- Vulnerable or failing members are named, not hidden in aggregate scores.
- Scenario assumptions and baseline are cited for every comparison.
## Parameterization
Caller supplies candidate schema, scenario schema, criteria, metric formulas, baseline, and vulnerability thresholds.
## Failure and counterexamples
Reject evaluations that change scenario assumptions midstream or report aggregate impact without member-level checks.
## Provenance map
- concept: convergence/portfolio-evaluation-per-scenario
- concept: experiment-execution/scenario-impact-assessment
- intermediate: Pass3/evaluate-scenario
- intermediate: Pass3/assess-scenario-impact