Model Update

---
name: model-update
description: "Use this skill when the task requires model update capabilities."
executor: LLM_BEHAVIOR
skill_id: finance.equity_research.model_update_3
status: ADOPTED
security: {level: high, pii: false, approval_required: true}
anchors:
  - finance
  - ai_ml
  - data
  - design
tier: 2
input_schema:
  - name: code_or_task
    type: string
    description: "Code snippet, script, or task description to process"
    required: true
output_schema:
  - name: plan
    type: string
    description: "Strategic plan or design document"
  - name: next_steps
    type: array
    description: "List of recommended next steps"
---
# Model Update

description: "Analyze — Update financial models with new data — quarterly earnings, management guidance, macro changes, or revised assumptions. Adjusts estimates, recalculates valuation, and flags materia"
## Workflow

### Step 1: Identify What Changed

Determine the update trigger:
- **Earnings release**: New quarterly actuals to plug in
- **Guidance change**: Company updated forward outlook
- **Estimate revision**: Analyst changing assumptions based on new data
- **Macro update**: Interest rates, FX, commodity prices changed
- **Event-driven**: M&A, restructuring, new product, management change

### Step 2: Plug New Data

#### After Earnings
Update the model with reported actuals:

| Line Item | Prior Estimate | Actual | Delta | Notes |
|-----------|---------------|--------|-------|-------|
| Revenue | | | | |
| Gross Margin | | | | |
| Operating Expenses | | | | |
| EBITDA | | | | |
| EPS | | | | |
| [Key metric 1] | | | | |
| [Key metric 2] | | | | |

**Segment Detail** (if applicable):
- Update each segment's revenue and margin
- Note any segment mix shifts

**Balance Sheet / Cash Flow Updates**:
- Cash and debt balances
- Share count (buybacks, dilution)
- Capex actual vs. estimate
- Working capital changes

### Step 3: Revise Forward Estimates

Based on the new data, adjust forward estimates:

| | Old FY Est | New FY Est | Change | Old Next FY | New Next FY | Change |
|---|-----------|-----------|--------|------------|------------|--------|
| Revenue | | | | | | |
| EBITDA | | | | | | |
| EPS | | | | | | |

**Key Assumption Changes:**
- What assumptions are you changing and why?
- Revenue growth rate: old → new (reason)
- Margin assumption: old → new (reason)
- Any new items (restructuring charges, one-time gains, etc.)

### Step 4: Valuation Impact

Recalculate valuation with updated estimates:

| Valuation Method | Prior | Updated | Change |
|-----------------|-------|---------|--------|
| DCF fair value | | | |
| P/E (NTM EPS × target multiple) | | | |
| EV/EBITDA (NTM EBITDA × target multiple) | | | |
| **Price Target** | | | |

### Step 5: Summary & Action

**Estimate Change Summary:**
- One paragraph: what changed, why, and what it means for the stock
- Is this a thesis-changing event or noise?

**Rating / Price Target:**
- Maintain or change rating?
- New price target (if changed) with methodology
- Upside/downside to current price

### Step 6: Output

- Updated Excel model (if user provides the existing model)
- Estimate change summary (markdown or Word)
- Updated price target derivation

## Important Notes

- Always reconcile your estimates to the company's reported figures before projecting forward
- Note any non-recurring items and whether your estimates are GAAP or adjusted
- Track your estimate revision history — it shows your analytical progression
- If the quarter was noisy, separate signal from noise in your estimate changes
- Check consensus after updating — how do your revised estimates compare to the Street?
- Share count matters — dilution from stock comp, converts, or buybacks can materially affect EPS

---

## Why This Skill Exists

Analyze — Update financial models with new data — quarterly earnings, management guidance, macro changes, or revised assumptions. Adjusts estimates, recalculates valuation, and flags materia

<!-- SR_40: auto-generated from frontmatter `purpose`/`description` (OPP-Phase3). Expand with domain-specific rationale. -->

## When to Use

Use this skill when the task requires model update capabilities.

<!-- SR_40: auto-generated from frontmatter `when`/`description` (OPP-Phase3). -->

## What If Fails

If this skill fails to produce the expected output: (1) verify input completeness, (2) retry with more specific context, (3) fall back to the parent workflow without this skill.

<!-- SR_40: auto-generated from frontmatter `what_if_fails` (OPP-Phase3). -->