Mos Bet

---
name: mos-bet
description: Open, update, close, list, or narrate a falsifiable business bet stored as a dated decision artifact.
---

# Business bet

Treat a bet as a falsifiable operating choice with a deadline and a verdict, not a task or an
offer description. A bet is a dated decision artifact; there is no bet command.

## How to run this skill (interaction contract)

A bet is a durable, dated commitment, so treat this as an interactive flow:

- Confirm the hypothesis, stake, deadline, and success/failure signals with the operator before
  opening a bet — these are their commitments, not yours to invent.
- Propose the exact edit and wait for approval before any write, whether opening, updating, or
  closing a bet.
- When updating, append dated evidence; never rewrite the original hypothesis on their behalf.

## Inspect

Run:

```bash
mos status . --json
mos validate . --json
```

List existing bets by reading every `bet.md` under `business/decisions/` (glob
`business/decisions/**/bet.md`). Do not invent revenue, customer, proof, or financial facts.

## Open

Only after approval, write the bet as a schema-conformant dated artifact:

```
business/decisions/YYYY/MM-Mon/YYYY-MM-DD-<slug>/bet.md
```

Use today's date and a lowercase hyphenated slug; `MM-Mon` is `09-Sep` style, or a bare `09`
when `.mos/config.yaml` sets `"month_folder": "MM"`. Record: hypothesis, stake, deadline, success
signal, failure signal, status (`open`), and an empty evidence log.

## Update and close

- Update: append dated observations to the evidence log; never rewrite the original hypothesis.
- Close: set status to `won`, `lost`, or `void`, add the verdict and what it teaches, and note
  any follow-on decision.

Propose the exact edit before writing. After any write, verify:

```bash
mos validate . --json
```

## Narrate

When asked how the bets stand, summarize each open bet's hypothesis, deadline, and leading
evidence, then the recently closed verdicts. Lead with what the operator should decide next.

## Document contract

Every file you write under `business/`, `knowledge/`, `content/`, `campaigns/`, `reporting/`,
or `outputs/` opens with the frontmatter block defined in the repository's `CONTRACT.md`:
`title`, `type`, `description`, `date`, `status`, plus at least one of `sources`, `related`,
or `produced_by`. Deliverables must carry `sources:` — an output with no sources is not
finished. Emit the block as you write the file; never leave it for a later pass.