Stock Direction Signals

---
name: stock-direction-signals
description: Use this skill when the user wants a bullish, bearish, or mixed directional read on a US stock — e.g. "is NVDA bullish or bearish right now", "give me a directional read on AAPL", "is MAG7 sentiment turning", "what do the chart, news, and social say about AMD", "signal brief on SPY". Covers MAG7 names, semiconductor and AI-infrastructure stocks, tokenized-stock watchlists, and index proxies like SPY/QQQ. Composes only Alpha Vantage MPP (price, technicals, news, earnings), smartmoney-market (13F fund and insider positioning), SELAT-native Twitter (social chatter), Circle StableEnrich (Reddit), and Circle Otto (TradFi macro) into a non-advisory signal brief. Pays per call via selat-pay (USDC via Circle Gateway), no API keys.
license: Apache-2.0
compatibility: Requires the selat CLI, selat-pay >= 0.12.0 (for `--live-probe`), and a funded Circle Agent Wallet (the runner pays on whichever chain holds Gateway USDC). Every step routes through the SELAT Router across four rails (`x402 via Circle Gateway`, `x402 on Base`, `MPP on Tempo`, `MPP on Solana`), so a reachable SELAT Router is required. `selat skill verify --live-probe` (no --pay) is free and needs no funded wallet.
metadata:
  author: SELAT-AI
  version: "1.1"
  rail: mixed
  kind: multi
---

# stock-direction-signals

Directional research on one US equity ticker or index proxy. The skill gathers
paid signal from a **fixed provider filter** — Alpha Vantage MPP (quote, chart,
RSI, MACD, news sentiment, earnings), smartmoney-market (13F fund and insider
positioning), SELAT-native Twitter (raw chatter), Circle StableEnrich (Reddit
threads), and Circle Otto (TradFi macro regime) — and the
agent fuses it into one brief: verdict (bullish / bearish / mixed / insufficient
data), confidence, the technical setup, catalysts, institutional positioning,
social sentiment, macro backdrop, and the contrarian risks that would invalidate the read. Research
only — never trade execution or financial advice.

## When To Use

Use when a user asks whether a ticker looks bullish, bearish, or mixed over a
short or medium horizon and the answer needs live market context plus social or
news sentiment — MAG7 names, semiconductor and AI-infrastructure stocks,
tokenized-stock watchlists, or index proxies like SPY and QQQ.

Do not use for trade execution, portfolio advice, or any request that should
place an order. This skill only gathers paid data and synthesizes a research
brief; if the user asks to trade on the result, decline that part and say so.

## Rails

This skill spans **four settlement modes**, so the skill's `rail` is `mixed`:

- **x402 via Circle Gateway** — SELAT-native Twitter (`catalog.selat.ai`)
  settles `x402 via Circle Gateway` through the SELAT Router.
- **x402 on Base** — Circle Otto (`x402.ottoai.services`) settles
  `x402 on Base` through the SELAT Router.
- **MPP on Tempo** — the six Alpha Vantage steps
  (`alphavantage.mpp.paywithlocus.com`) and Circle StableEnrich
  (`stableenrich.dev`) settle `MPP on Tempo` through the SELAT Router.
- **MPP on Solana** — smartmoney-market's Pay / MPP gateway
  (`pay.smartmoney.market`) settles `MPP on Solana` through the SELAT Router.

The `selat` CLI auto-detects each step's protocol and settlement mode at call
time. The runner pays on whichever chain holds Gateway USDC — rail names are
not a pay-chain claim. A reachable SELAT Router is required.

## Workflow

1. Install: `selat skill install stock-direction-signals`
2. Run end-to-end:
   `selat skill run stock-direction-signals --ticker <TICKER> --twitter_query "<query>" --reddit_query "<query>"`
3. The CLI compiles each step into a `selat-pay` call and prints each result.

Before running, tell the user what it costs: a full run quotes at roughly
**$0.09** live (ten paid calls summing to $0.086 on 2026-10-04) — say "this
pulls ten paid data feeds for about nine cents — proceed?" and wait for a yes
before spending. Afterwards, report what was actually spent. `selat skill run`
always pays all ten steps; there is no total-run cap, only per-step caps.

Recommended agent procedure (manifest steps are ordered cheapest-first; retarget
all three params to the user's ticker; all three are required):

1. **Normalize the request** into `ticker`, `twitter_query`, `reddit_query`, and
   a horizon (intraday / week / month / quarter). Preserve the user's ticker
   exactly; expand obvious company names into their tickers. Fold company and
   product names into the two query params (e.g. `$NVDA OR NVIDIA OR Blackwell`).
2. **Social pulse** — SELAT-native Twitter advanced search (~$0.001). Raw
   evidence only: the agent scores tone, intensity, recency, and engagement
   quality itself.
3. **Macro regime** — Circle Otto `tradfi-data` (~$0.001–0.005): indices, VIX,
   DXY, yields, commodities, and quote context for risk-on/risk-off framing.
4. **Market core** — Alpha Vantage global-quote, time-series-daily, RSI, MACD
   (~$0.008 each): last price, chart trend, momentum, and trend acceleration.
5. **Catalysts** — Alpha Vantage news-sentiment and earnings (~$0.008 each):
   news tone, catalyst clustering, earnings surprise history.
6. **Smart money** — smartmoney-market ticker summary (~$0.0105): 13F
   fund-holder coverage and qualified projected trend across 511 curated
   managers, plus company insider and House PTR summaries when available.
   Quarterly filings lag — treat it as positioning, not a timing signal.
7. **Retail texture** — Circle StableEnrich Reddit search (~$0.02): community
   debate and long-form reactions; weight recency, comment quality, and claims
   repeated across communities.
8. **Synthesize** a compact brief: verdict, confidence, price and technical
   setup, catalysts and fundamentals, institutional positioning, social sentiment, macro/regime, contrarian
   risks, and source notes. Label it bullish, bearish, mixed, or insufficient
   data — and say what would invalidate it.

Relay the brief in plain language with the dollar cost of the run; keep endpoint
URLs and raw response JSON out of what the user sees. When the user only wants a
subset (e.g. no social), run the individual steps with `selat-pay` instead of the
full manifest. For multiple tickers, repeat the run per ticker.

For deeper dives, the provider filter also offers optional endpoints not in the
manifest (intraday/weekly/monthly series, SMA/EMA/BBANDS, earnings-call
transcripts, financial statements, smartmoney fund-holder and insider details,
tweet replies, Reddit post comments, Otto derivatives context) — see `references/endpoints.md`; call them individually via
`selat-pay` within the same provider filter.

## Inputs And Outputs

| Param | Required | Default | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| `ticker` | yes | none | US equity ticker or index proxy, e.g. `NVDA`. |
| `twitter_query` | yes | none | Twitter advanced-search query for the same ticker, e.g. `$NVDA OR NVIDIA`; widen with company/product terms. |
| `reddit_query` | yes | none | StableEnrich Reddit query for the same ticker, e.g. `NVDA stock`; add company/product terms. |

None of the three has a default, so a run can't silently pay for another
company's chatter.

Output: per-step JSON (tweets, macro data, quote, OHLCV series, RSI, MACD, news
sentiment, earnings history, smart-money ticker summary, Reddit posts) that the agent fuses into a
non-advisory directional brief — what moved the signal, what would invalidate
it, and which paid endpoints were used.

## Gotchas

- **The provider filter is the skill.** Use only Alpha Vantage MPP,
  smartmoney-market, SELAT-native Twitter, Circle StableEnrich, and Circle Otto. Do not substitute AIsa,
  BlockRun, Serper, Apollo, Exa, CoinGecko, Nansen, or other catalogue matches
  even if they rank higher.
- **Retarget the defaults.** All three params default to NVDA-flavored values so
  `verify` can exercise every step; a run for any other ticker must override all
  three or the social steps research the wrong company.
- **Alpha Vantage steps are POST — params go in `body`**, keyed by `symbol`
  (indicators also need `interval`/`series_type`, RSI adds `time_period`).
  `news-sentiment` keys on `tickers` (plural) — and its `topics` field takes a
  fixed topic enum, not a company name, so this manifest omits it.
- **SELAT-native Twitter returns raw social objects.** Never claim a finished
  sentiment score unless the response explicitly includes one; the scoring is
  the agent's job.
- **smartmoney-market is GET with the ticker in the path** on its Pay / MPP
  gateway (`/api/ticker/{symbol}`). Its x402 gateway (`x402.smartmoney.market`,
  x402 on Base) serves the same data under different paths
  (`/ticker-summary?symbol=`) — do not mix the two path shapes. The gateway
  does not validate input before payment — an unknown or misspelled ticker
  still quotes the full $0.01 — so normalize the ticker before paying. Thin or
  missing positioning is "insufficient data" for that leg, not a bearish signal.
- **Reddit is noisy and momentum-skewed.** Use it for thesis texture; weight
  recency, comment quality, and repetition across communities.
- **Otto is macro-first here.** `tradfi-data` is the default; use Otto's
  crypto/perp endpoints only when the user explicitly connects the stock to
  tokenized equity, crypto beta, or derivatives spillover.
- **`maxAmount` is a guardrail, not the price.** Each call is capped by its own
  step `maxAmount` ($0.01–$0.04), set above the live quotes (full run measured
  at $0.086 on 2026-10-04). The top-level `maxAmount` ($0.04) is only a fallback
  for a step with no cap of its own. It is not a total-run cap: nothing stops a
  run at a sum, so the worst case is the sum of the step caps ($0.21). Gateway
  prices can run above the catalogue listing.
- **The live 402 is the source of truth.** If a step stops serving a challenge
  or the live price drifts, `selat skill verify` flags it — report the live
  response and adapt within the provider filter only.
- **Non-advisory, always.** The brief can support a bullish or bearish thesis
  but must never be presented as financial advice or a guaranteed prediction.

## Validation

> `--chain base` in the probe command below is only the flag `selat-pay`
> requires today — a probe reads a free, chain-independent quote and never
> settles. A real paid run resolves the settlement chain from your funded Circle
> Gateway balance, not the manifest.

- Static: `selat skill validate ./skills/stock-direction-signals`
- Live gate (free, probe-only): `selat skill verify ./skills/stock-direction-signals --live-probe --ticker NVDA --twitter_query "\$NVDA OR NVIDIA" --reddit_query "NVDA stock"`
- Paid confirm (settles real 200s): add `--pay` to the verify command.
- Single-step probe (no pay):
  `selat-pay POST "https://alphavantage.mpp.paywithlocus.com/alphavantage/global-quote" --body '{"symbol":"NVDA"}' --chain base --probe-only --live-probe`

## References

- `manifest.json` — the machine-readable payment recipe this skill runs.
- [`references/endpoints.md`](references/endpoints.md) — the provider-filtered catalogue endpoints, request shapes, and prices.
- [`references/agent-skill-authoring-sop.md`](../../references/agent-skill-authoring-sop.md) — authoring standard.
- selat-pay — https://github.com/SELAT-AI/selat-pay