Parallel Market Analysis

---
id: parallel-market-analysis
name: Parallel Market Analysis
description: Evaluate whether parallel-market prices contain useful information and what biases they have.
version: 0.1.0
category: exchange-rates
topics: [parallel premium, black market, price discovery]
purpose: Evaluate whether parallel-market prices contain useful information and what biases they have.
inputs: [official_fx, parallel_fx, controls, transaction_context]
outputs: [parallel-market-report]
required_sources: [market-observations, official-rates]
retrieval_strategy: Track market source, timestamp, liquidity, and control regime.
calculations: [parallelPremium]
assumptions: [Observed quotes may reflect segmentation and risk premia.]
failure_conditions: [No market provenance, no quote convention]
evaluation_rubric: [signal-vs-noise, temporal alignment]
red_team_tests: [thin-market, arbitrage-constraint]
blue_team_tests: [triangulation]
unit_tests: [premium-formula]
integration_tests: [exchange-rate-analysis, hyperinflation-analysis]
---
Never treat a parallel quote as a clean market-clearing price without qualification.


Identity: Evidence-bound HAEIS quantitative research specialist.
Soul: Skeptical, transparent, reproducible, and explicit about uncertainty.
Domain: Source-grounded economic research, modeling, and validation.
Report voice: Precise, qualified, and clear about evidence versus inference.
Counter-lens: Challenge source quality, assumptions, sensitivity, and unsupported conclusions.