Plan Capacity

---
name: plan-capacity
locale: wenyan-ultra
source_locale: en
source_commit: 82c77053
fence_basis_commit: 82c77053
translator: "Julius Brussee homage — caveman"
translation_date: "2026-04-26"
description: >
  Perform capacity planning using historical metrics and growth models. Use
  predict_linear for forecasting, identify resource constraints, calculate
  headroom, and recommend scaling actions before saturation. Use before
  seasonal traffic spikes or product launches, during quarterly capacity
  reviews, when resource utilization trends upward, or before budget planning
  cycles.
license: MIT
allowed-tools: Read Write Edit Bash Grep Glob
metadata:
  author: Philipp Thoss
  version: "1.0"
  domain: observability
  complexity: intermediate
  language: multi
  tags: capacity-planning, forecasting, predict-linear, growth, headroom
---

# 量計

預資需、防滿，以據驅量計也。

## 用

- 季峰前（節、賣會）→用
- 新功發劃→用
- 季量察→用
- 資用升→用
- 預算計前→用

## 入

- **必**：歷度（CPU、憶、盤、網、求/秒）
- **必**：勢析時段（≥4 週）
- **可**：商長預（用增、新功）
- **可**：預算限

## 行

### 一：集歷度

問 Prometheus 鍵資度：

```promql
# CPU usage trend over 8 weeks
avg(rate(node_cpu_seconds_total{mode!="idle"}[5m])) by (instance)

# Memory usage trend
avg(node_memory_MemTotal_bytes - node_memory_MemAvailable_bytes) by (instance)

# Disk usage growth
avg(node_filesystem_size_bytes - node_filesystem_free_bytes) by (instance, device)

# Request rate growth
sum(rate(http_requests_total[5m])) by (service)

# Database connection pool usage
avg(db_connection_pool_used / db_connection_pool_max) by (instance)
```

導出以析：

```bash
# Export 8 weeks of CPU data
curl -G 'http://prometheus:9090/api/v1/query_range' \
  --data-urlencode 'query=avg(rate(node_cpu_seconds_total{mode!="idle"}[5m])) by (instance)' \
  --data-urlencode 'start=2024-12-15T00:00:00Z' \
  --data-urlencode 'end=2025-02-09T00:00:00Z' \
  --data-urlencode 'step=1h' | jq '.data.result' > cpu_8weeks.json
```

得：諸資清時序、無大缺。

敗：缺資減預準。察度留與抓間。

### 二：以 predict_linear 算長率

用 Prometheus `predict_linear()` 預滿：

```promql
# Predict when CPU will hit 80% (4 weeks ahead)
predict_linear(
  avg(rate(node_cpu_seconds_total{mode!="idle"}[5m]))[8w:],
  4*7*24*3600  # 4 weeks in seconds
) > 0.80

# Predict disk full date (8 weeks ahead)
predict_linear(
  avg(node_filesystem_size_bytes - node_filesystem_free_bytes)[8w:],
  8*7*24*3600
) > 0.95 * avg(node_filesystem_size_bytes)

# Predict memory pressure (2 weeks ahead)
predict_linear(
  avg(node_memory_MemTotal_bytes - node_memory_MemAvailable_bytes)[8w:],
  2*7*24*3600
) / avg(node_memory_MemTotal_bytes) > 0.90

# Predict request rate capacity breach (4 weeks ahead)
predict_linear(
  sum(rate(http_requests_total[5m]))[8w:],
  4*7*24*3600
) > 10000  # known capacity limit
```

立預盤：

```json
{
  "dashboard": {
    "title": "Capacity Forecast",
    "panels": [
      {
        "title": "CPU Saturation Forecast (4 weeks)",
        "targets": [
          {
            "expr": "predict_linear(avg(rate(node_cpu_seconds_total{mode!=\"idle\"}[5m]))[8w:], 4*7*24*3600)",
            "legendFormat": "Predicted CPU"
          },
          {
            "expr": "0.80",
            "legendFormat": "Target Threshold (80%)"
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "Disk Full Date",
        "targets": [
          {
            "expr": "(avg(node_filesystem_size_bytes) - predict_linear(avg(node_filesystem_free_bytes)[8w:], 8*7*24*3600)) / avg(node_filesystem_size_bytes)",
            "legendFormat": "Predicted Usage %"
          }
        ]
      }
    ]
  }
}
```

得：明圖示資何時越限。

敗：預錯（負、狂擺）→察：
- 史不足（需 ≥4 週）
- 階尖（部署、遷）扭勢
- 季模未捉於線型

### 三：算當前餘地

定滿前安界：

```promql
# CPU headroom (percentage remaining before 80% threshold)
(0.80 - avg(rate(node_cpu_seconds_total{mode!="idle"}[5m]))) / 0.80 * 100

# Memory headroom (bytes remaining before 90% usage)
avg(node_memory_MemAvailable_bytes) - (avg(node_memory_MemTotal_bytes) * 0.10)

# Request rate headroom (requests/sec before saturation)
10000 - sum(rate(http_requests_total[5m]))

# Time until saturation (weeks until CPU hits 80%)
(0.80 - avg(rate(node_cpu_seconds_total{mode!="idle"}[5m]))) /
  deriv(avg(rate(node_cpu_seconds_total{mode!="idle"}[5m]))[8w:]) /
  (7*24*3600)
```

立餘地撮報：

```bash
cat > capacity_headroom.md <<'EOF'
# Capacity Headroom Report (2025-02-09)

## Current Utilization
- **CPU**: 45% average (target: <80%)
- **Memory**: 62% (target: <90%)
- **Disk**: 71% (target: <95%)
- **Request Rate**: 4,200 req/s (capacity: 10,000)

## Headroom Analysis
- **CPU**: 35% headroom → ~12 weeks until saturation
- **Memory**: 28% headroom → ~16 weeks until saturation
- **Disk**: 24% headroom → ~8 weeks until full
- **Request Rate**: 5,800 req/s headroom → ~20 weeks until capacity

## Priority Actions
1. **Disk**: Implement log rotation or expand volume within 4 weeks
2. **CPU**: Plan horizontal scaling in next quarter
3. **Memory**: Monitor but no immediate action needed
EOF
```

得：諸資量化餘地、含至滿時估。

敗：餘地已負→入反應模、需即縮放。

### 四：模長景

納商預：

```python
# Example Python script for scenario modeling
import pandas as pd
import numpy as np

# Load historical data
df = pd.read_json('cpu_8weeks.json')

# Calculate weekly growth rate
growth_rate_weekly = df['value'].pct_change(periods=7).mean()

# Scenario 1: Current trend
weeks_ahead = 12
current_trend = df['value'].iloc[-1] * (1 + growth_rate_weekly) ** weeks_ahead

# Scenario 2: 2x user growth (marketing campaign)
accelerated_trend = df['value'].iloc[-1] * (1 + growth_rate_weekly * 2) ** weeks_ahead

# Scenario 3: New feature launch (+30% baseline)
feature_launch = (df['value'].iloc[-1] * 1.30) * (1 + growth_rate_weekly) ** weeks_ahead

print(f"Current Trend (12 weeks): {current_trend:.1%} CPU")
print(f"2x Growth Scenario: {accelerated_trend:.1%} CPU")
print(f"Feature Launch Scenario: {feature_launch:.1%} CPU")
print(f"Threshold: 80%")
```

得：諸景示商變對量之效。

敗：景越量→事前先擴。

### 五：生擴薦

立可行薦：

```markdown
## Capacity Scaling Plan

### Immediate Actions (Next 4 Weeks)
1. **Disk Expansion** [Priority: HIGH]
   - Current: 500GB, 71% used
   - Projected full date: 2025-04-01 (8 weeks)
   - Action: Expand to 1TB by 2025-03-15
   - Cost: $50/month additional
   - Justification: 5 weeks lead time needed

2. **Log Rotation Policy** [Priority: MEDIUM]
   - Current: Logs retained 90 days
   - Action: Reduce to 30 days, archive to S3
   - Savings: ~150GB disk space
   - Cost: $5/month S3 storage

### Near-Term Actions (Next Quarter)
3. **Horizontal Scaling - API Tier** [Priority: MEDIUM]
   - Current: 4 instances, 45% CPU
   - Projected: 65% CPU by 2025-05-01
   - Action: Add 2 instances (to 6 total)
   - Cost: $400/month
   - Trigger: When CPU avg exceeds 60% for 7 days

4. **Database Connection Pool** [Priority: LOW]
   - Current: 50 max connections, 40% used
   - Projected: 55% by Q3
   - Action: Increase to 75 in Q2
   - Cost: None (configuration change)

### Long-Term Planning (Next 6 Months)
5. **Migration to Auto-Scaling** [Priority: MEDIUM]
   - Current: Manual scaling
   - Action: Implement Kubernetes HPA (Horizontal Pod Autoscaler)
   - Timeline: Q3 2025
   - Benefit: Automatic response to load spikes
```

得：列序含本、時、觸件。

敗：薦因本拒→重訂限或受險。

### 六：設量警

立低餘地警：

```yaml
# capacity_alerts.yml
groups:
  - name: capacity
    interval: 1h
    rules:
      - alert: CPUCapacityLow
        expr: |
          (0.80 - avg(rate(node_cpu_seconds_total{mode!="idle"}[5m]))) / 0.80 < 0.20
        for: 24h
        labels:
          severity: warning
        annotations:
          summary: "CPU headroom below 20%"
          description: "Current CPU headroom: {{ $value | humanizePercentage }}. Scaling needed within 4 weeks."

      - alert: DiskFillForecast
        expr: |
          predict_linear(avg(node_filesystem_free_bytes)[8w:], 4*7*24*3600) < 0.10 * avg(node_filesystem_size_bytes)
        for: 1h
        labels:
          severity: warning
        annotations:
          summary: "Disk projected to fill within 4 weeks"
          description: "Expand disk volume soon."

      - alert: MemoryCapacityLow
        expr: |
          avg(node_memory_MemAvailable_bytes) < 0.15 * avg(node_memory_MemTotal_bytes)
        for: 6h
        labels:
          severity: warning
        annotations:
          summary: "Memory headroom below 15%"
```

得：警於滿前響、留時前擴。

敗：警頻起（疲）或遲（反應慌）→調限。

## 驗

- [ ] 歷度涵 ≥8 週
- [ ] `predict_linear()` 問返合預（無負）
- [ ] 諸要資算餘地
- [ ] 長景含商預
- [ ] 擴薦含本與時
- [ ] 量警設且試
- [ ] 報與工首與財共察

## 忌

- **史不足**：線預需 ≥4 週。少則預不可信
- **忽階變**：部署、遷、發功生尖扭勢。濾或注
- **線假**：非皆線。指長（病毒物）需異模
- **忘前置**：雲供速、然採購、預算、遷需週。早計
- **無預算合**：無預算入則臨末慌。早納財

## 參

- `setup-prometheus-monitoring` - 集量計所用度
- `build-grafana-dashboards` - 視預與餘地
- `optimize-cloud-costs` - 衡量計與本優