Bmc Economic Prototyping

---
name: bmc-economic-prototyping
description: "Forces pricing, unit economics, and revenue-model assumptions into a live, testable form at the start of BMC work — a dynamic numbers prototype and a willingness-to-pay test — instead of leaving Revenue Streams and Cost Structure as an afterthought."
---

# BMC Economic Prototyping

## Purpose

Fixes the single most common failure mode in BMC facilitation: a team
fills Value Proposition and Customer Segments with real energy for an
hour, then waves hands at Revenue Streams and Cost Structure ("we'll
figure out pricing later"). This skill forces the economics into a live,
testable form in the SAME session the canvas is first sketched — not
after the rest of the model feels "done." Use this at the start of BMC
work, alongside `bmc-session-facilitation-design`, not as a later
add-on.

## Anchored in research

Ash Maurya's Lean Canvas (*Running Lean*, 2012) deliberately gives
Revenue Streams and Cost Structure more prominence than the original
Osterwalder BMC precisely because teams routinely skip them — this
skill applies that same discipline inside a standard BMC session rather
than switching canvases. The willingness-to-pay test step draws on the
Van Westendorp Price Sensitivity Meter, an established four-question
market-research technique for finding a defensible price band without a
large budget. General pricing-validation practice (A/B price offers,
price-anchoring conversations) is standard Lean Startup / Strategyzer
material.

## Method

1. **Build the numbers artifact immediately, not the wording.** As soon
   as a first-draft Value Proposition and primary Customer Segment
   exist — even roughly — open a simple spreadsheet (not a slide) with
   five fields: assumed price point(s), realistic near-term volume,
   unit cost, contribution margin per unit, and breakeven volume. This
   is a prototype of the ECONOMICS, not a business plan — five numbers,
   updated live as the session continues.
2. **Ask the "big enough" question before refining anything else.** At
   the assumed price and a *realistic* (not optimistic) volume, does the
   resulting revenue reach a size that actually matters to this specific
   business? A technically profitable model that tops out at a trivial
   revenue ceiling is a different problem than an unprofitable one — name
   which problem this is before moving on.
3. **Design a minimal willingness-to-pay (WTP) test, matched to stage:**
   - **Very early / no product yet** — a price-anchoring conversation
     with 5-10 real prospects: ask what they currently pay for the
     closest alternative, then test reactions to 2-3 concrete price
     points (not "would you pay X?" — people say yes to be polite; ask
     "what would make X too expensive?" and "what would make X feel too
     cheap to trust?", the two anchor questions from the Van Westendorp
     method).
   - **Early, some credibility** — a fake-door landing page offering 2-3
     price tiers with a real "get started" button; measure which tier
     gets clicked, not just whether anyone visits.
   - **Enough credibility to ask for money** — a real pre-order or
     refundable deposit at the target price; nothing tests willingness
     to pay like an actual ask for payment.
4. **Convert fantasy numbers into evidence, explicitly.** Watch for
   unexamined anchors in the room: "everyone would pay $X for this,"
   "the market rate is obviously $Y." Each time one of these surfaces,
   ask directly: "is this a number we've tested, or a number we're
   hoping is true?" Mark it on the canvas accordingly (see
   `bmc-canvas-diagnostic-reading`'s evidence grade check, DR-04) — an
   untested price anchor is exactly the kind of assumption that check is
   designed to catch, and this skill is where it should be caught first.
5. **Timing rule.** Do steps 1-2 in the SAME session as the first canvas
   draft — the same day, ideally the same meeting. Economics discussed a
   week later, after the team has emotionally invested in the value
   proposition, gets rationalized instead of tested.
6. **Update the prototype as new information arrives.** This is not a
   one-time spreadsheet — every WTP test result, every cost estimate
   that firms up, goes back into the same five fields. The prototype's
   job is to always reflect the team's current best evidence, visibly.

## What this skill does NOT do

- Doesn't build a full financial model, ROI case, or NPV/IRR analysis —
  for that, hand off to `business-case-and-analysis/roi-npv-sensitivity-model`
  once the model has moved past the canvas stage. This skill's five-field
  prototype is deliberately minimal; a full business case is a separate,
  later step.
- Doesn't replace real market research for a pricing decision that
  carries major risk — the WTP tests here are fast and cheap by design,
  which means they're directional evidence, not a substitute for formal
  pricing research when the stakes justify one.
- Doesn't tell you what price to charge — it forces the team to have
  evidence for whichever price they choose, not a specific number.

## Refinement notes

- What's the most common "we'll figure out pricing later" excuse you
  hear, and what's the fastest way you've found to interrupt it?
- Which WTP test format (anchoring conversation, fake-door page,
  pre-order) has actually produced the most reliable signal in your own
  engagements?
- What's a real example where the "big enough" question killed an
  otherwise-loved idea early — and was that the right call in
  hindsight?

## Continue from here

- Use alongside: `bmc-session-facilitation-design/SKILL.md` — do this
  during the same first session, not after.
- Feeds into: `bmc-channel-economics-check/SKILL.md` (channel CAC vs.
  the price/margin this skill establishes) and
  `bmc-revenue-quality-scoring/SKILL.md` (scoring the resilience of the
  revenue streams priced here).
- Full financial modeling: `../../../../business-case-and-analysis/skills/roi-npv-sensitivity-model/SKILL.md`.
- This pack's shared guardrails: `../../CLAUDE.md`

## References

- `../../references/bmc-source-material-notes.md` — source material background
- `../../references/bmc-resilience-heuristics-research.md` — selection and grounding notes for this skill and its siblings
- `../../CLAUDE.md` — this pack's shared guardrails