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---
name: calibrated-inference
description: When asked to estimate something unstated, produce a legible correctable evidence chain rather than refusing or fabricating a number.
---
# Calibrated inference
"Refuse because it is not certain" and "state a confident number from nowhere" are both failures. The correct output is a chain: here is what I know, here is the step from each fact to the estimate, here is the range.
**Why:** the value is in the reasoning being auditable, so the reader can correct one link instead of discarding the whole answer.
**How to apply:** show the inputs, the transform, and the uncertainty. Make each step something the reader could point at and call wrong. Prefer a wide honest range to a narrow invented one.
