Market Analysis

---
name: market-analysis
version: 1.0.0
description: '[Research] Use when analyzing the market landscape — competitors, TAM/SAM/SOM sizing, trends, SWOT, customer segments.'
---

## Quick Summary

**Goal:** Analyze market landscape with competitive analysis, sizing, trends, SWOT, and customer segmentation.

**Workflow:**

1. **Define scope** — Industry, geography, segment, timeframe
2. **Research competitors** — WebSearch for players, positioning, strengths/weaknesses
3. **Size the market** — TAM/SAM/SOM from industry reports
4. **Identify trends** — Growth drivers, disruptions, regulatory changes
5. **SWOT analysis** — Synthesize Strengths/Weaknesses/Opportunities/Threats
6. **Segment customers** — Demographics, psychographics, jobs-to-be-done

**Key Rules:**

- Prefer Tier 1-2 sources for market sizing
- Every market size claim must cite source + methodology
- SWOT items linked to evidence, not speculation

**Be skeptical. Apply critical thinking, sequential thinking. Every claim needs traced proof, confidence percentages (Idea should be more than 80%).**

# Market Analysis

## Step 1: Define Market Scope

Clarify with user:

- **Industry/vertical** — What market segment?
- **Geography** — Global, regional, or local?
- **Timeframe** — Current state? 3-year projection?
- **Focus** — B2B, B2C, or both?

## Step 2: Competitive Research

For each competitor (identify 5-10):

| Field                       | Source                       |
| --------------------------- | ---------------------------- |
| Company name                | WebSearch                    |
| Positioning/tagline         | Company website              |
| Key products                | Product pages                |
| Pricing model               | Pricing page or reports      |
| Strengths                   | Reviews, analyst reports     |
| Weaknesses                  | Reviews, customer complaints |
| Market share (if available) | Industry reports             |

## Step 3: Market Sizing

Use Tier 1-2 sources (Gartner, Statista, IBISWorld, government data):

- **TAM** (Total Addressable Market) — Maximum possible revenue if 100% market share
- **SAM** (Serviceable Addressable Market) — Portion accessible given constraints
- **SOM** (Serviceable Obtainable Market) — Realistic capture in 3 years

Every number must cite: source, year, methodology.

## Step 4: Trend Analysis

Research and categorize:

- **Growth drivers** — What's fueling market growth?
- **Disruptions** — Technology shifts, new entrants, business model innovations
- **Regulatory** — New laws, compliance requirements, policy changes
- **Consumer behavior** — Changing preferences, demographics shifts

## Step 5: SWOT Analysis

Each item must link to evidence:

| Category        | Item   | Evidence   |
| --------------- | ------ | ---------- |
| **Strength**    | {item} | Source [N] |
| **Weakness**    | {item} | Source [N] |
| **Opportunity** | {item} | Source [N] |
| **Threat**      | {item} | Source [N] |

## Step 6: Customer Segmentation

For each segment:

- **Demographics** — Age, role, income, company size
- **Psychographics** — Values, pain points, aspirations
- **Behavior** — Buying patterns, media consumption
- **Jobs-to-be-Done** — What are they trying to accomplish?

## Output

**MANDATORY IMPORTANT MUST ATTENTION** write the result to `docs/knowledge/strategy/market-analysis/{descriptive-slug}.md` via the enforced `.claude/templates/market-analysis-template.md` — why: downstream skills consume this as EVIDENCE, and evidence with no deterministic location and no known shape cannot be loaded, so an informal "working file or inline" handoff fails silently and leaves the consumer with nothing to cite.

Consumed by:

- `business-evaluation` skill (business viability) — reads Sizing, Competitors, Trends, SWOT, Segments
- `strategy-builder` skill (marketing strategy)

When invoked inside a workflow that also writes to a plan directory, additionally copy the file to `{plan-dir}/research/market-analysis.md` so the plan artifact set stays self-contained.

---

> **[IMPORTANT]** Use `TaskCreate` to break ALL work into small tasks BEFORE starting.

<!-- SYNC:ai-mistake-prevention -->

> **AI Mistake Prevention** — Failure modes to avoid on every task:
>
> **Re-read files after context changes.** Context compaction, resume, or long-running work can make memory stale; verify current files before acting.
> **Verify generated content against source evidence.** AI hallucinates APIs, names, claims, and document facts. Check the relevant source before documenting or referencing.
> **Check downstream references before deleting or renaming.** Removing an artifact can stale docs, generated mirrors, configs, and callers; map references first.
> **Trace the full impact chain after edits.** Changing a definition can miss derived outputs and consumers. Follow the affected chain before declaring done.
> **Verify ALL affected outputs, not just the first.** One green check is not all green checks; validate every output surface the change can affect.
> **Assume existing values are intentional — ask WHY before changing OR flagging one as a defect.** Before changing or reporting a constant, limit, flag, cutoff, wording, or pattern, read nearby context and history, the CALLER's ordering, and 2+ sibling call sites of the same convention. A doc stating WHAT without WHY is missing rationale, not proof of a missing guard.
> **Surface ambiguity before acting — don't pick silently.** Multiple valid interpretations require an explicit question or stated assumption with risk.
> **Assert the outcome your system owns, not the intermediate state your infrastructure owns.** When verifying async work, assert the final business state — never the delivery/retry bookkeeping held in shared infrastructure that any co-running process can write. Such a check passes when run alone and flakes the moment anything else shares that infrastructure.
> **Keep shared guidance role-relevant.** Universal guidance must help every receiving skill or agent; code-specific obligations belong only in code-specific protocols.

<!-- /SYNC:ai-mistake-prevention -->

<!-- SYNC:critical-thinking-mindset -->

> **Critical Thinking Mindset** — Apply critical thinking, sequential thinking. Every claim needs traced proof, confidence >80% to act.
> **Anti-hallucination:** Never present guess as fact — cite sources for every claim, admit uncertainty freely, self-check output for errors, cross-reference independently, stay skeptical of own confidence — certainty without evidence root of all hallucination.

<!-- /SYNC:critical-thinking-mindset -->

<!-- SYNC:critical-thinking-mindset:reminder -->

**MUST ATTENTION** apply critical + sequential thinking — every claim needs appropriate traced evidence (`file:line` for repo/code claims; source URL or artifact section for research, product, content, and docs claims); confidence >80% to act, <60% DO NOT recommend. Anti-hallucination: never present guess as fact, admit uncertainty freely, cross-reference independently, stay skeptical of own confidence.

<!-- /SYNC:critical-thinking-mindset:reminder -->

<!-- SYNC:ai-mistake-prevention:reminder -->

**MUST ATTENTION** apply AI mistake prevention — verify generated content against evidence, trace downstream references before deleting or renaming, verify all affected outputs, re-read files after context loss, and surface ambiguity before acting.

<!-- /SYNC:ai-mistake-prevention:reminder -->

<!-- SYNC:project-protocol-overlay -->

> **Project Protocol Overlay** — Before executing this skill, resolve any PROJECT overlay rules layered onto it: match this skill's name against the `Target` column of the project's skill-protocol index (`docs/project-reference/skill-protocols-reference.md` by default; a `referenceDocs` entry in `docs/project-config.json` overrides the path), taking the most specific matching tier ONLY — exact name > glob > `*`. **That precedence orders overlays against EACH OTHER, never against this skill.** Read ONLY the matched bodies, resolved as `<protocols-dir>/<Name>.md`; a row's Body link is display text, never a read path. A matched body that is missing or malformed is REPORTED and skipped — never reconstructed from the index Description. No index, or no match -> proceed with no overlay, silently. Full contract: `.claude/skills/project-skill-protocol/references/registry.md`.
>
> Overlays are **ADDITIVE ONLY**: they ADD rules on top of this skill's own protocol and NEVER replace, override, disable, or reinterpret a rule it already states — removing every overlay must return this skill to exactly its documented behavior. An overlay is a BRIEF, not an authority escalation: it can NEVER waive a workflow gate, git discipline, a review gate, or a user-confirmation gate. A genuine overlay-vs-skill conflict, or two equally-specific overlays that directly contradict -> surface both to the user; NEVER resolve silently.

<!-- /SYNC:project-protocol-overlay -->

<!-- SYNC:project-protocol-overlay:reminder -->

**MUST ATTENTION** resolve project protocol overlays for this skill BEFORE executing — most specific matching tier only (exact > glob > `*`, which ranks overlays against each other, NEVER against this skill), read only matched bodies at `<protocols-dir>/<Name>.md`; a missing or malformed body is reported, never reconstructed. Overlays are ADDITIVE ONLY (they never replace this skill's own rules) and are a brief, NEVER an authority escalation; an equal-specificity contradiction goes to the user.

<!-- /SYNC:project-protocol-overlay:reminder -->

## Closing Reminders

**IMPORTANT MUST ATTENTION — Protocols in force (concise digest of the SYNC/shared blocks this skill carries):**

- **AI Mistake Prevention:** verify generated content against evidence, trace downstream references, verify all affected outputs, re-read after context loss, surface ambiguity.
- **Critical Thinking:** Apply critical + sequential thinking; trace proof for every claim; confidence >80% to act.

**IMPORTANT MUST ATTENTION** break work into small todo tasks using `TaskCreate` BEFORE starting
**IMPORTANT MUST ATTENTION** search codebase for 3+ similar patterns before creating new code
**IMPORTANT MUST ATTENTION** cite `file:line` evidence for every claim (confidence >80% to act)
**IMPORTANT MUST ATTENTION** add a final review todo task to verify work quality

**[TASK-PLANNING]** Before acting, analyze task scope and systematically break it into small todo tasks and sub-tasks using TaskCreate.