Trade In Valuator

---
name: trade-in-valuator
description: Use to valuate the buyer's trade-in vehicle (KBB / private party / wholesale / dealer allowance), compute state trade-in tax credit, handle lien payoff timing, and decide separate-sell vs trade-in. Triggers include "valuate my trade", "what's my Civic worth", "KBB vs private party", "trade-in tax credit", "lien payoff", "评估置换车", "卖给 dealer 还是私卖", and Spanish phrases "evaluar mi carro a cuenta", "lo entrego al dealer o lo vendo por mi cuenta".
---

# Trade-in Valuator

> **Caveat**: this skill is one author's playbook + 5-scenario stress test. Verify state fees / CPO terms / EV credits / dealer practices against current sources before quoting numbers to a dealer or making financial decisions. Not tax, legal, or financial advice.

Tax references reconciled September 22, 2026; valuation ranges require current market evidence.

Narrow-trigger skill: produce a defensible trade-in valuation, decide
separate-sell vs trade-in, and stage lien-payoff timing. Defers full reference
content to `../orchestrator/references/trade_in.md` and state-specific tax
mechanics to `../orchestrator/references/state_fees.md`.

## When to invoke

User says any of: "valuate my trade", "what's my Civic worth", "KBB vs private
party", "trade-in tax credit", "lien payoff", or the CN triggers in the
frontmatter. Skip this skill if there is no trade (Phase 1 trade gate = NO).

## 5-anchor valuation framework

Per `../orchestrator/references/trade_in.md` Section 1: every trade vehicle has
four book/market valuations -- and for **EVs and PHEVs, a fifth anchor: battery
State of Health (SoH)**. Capture every applicable anchor at Phase 1 --
misreading them is the #1 source of buyer loss in trade-in deals.

| # | Anchor | What it is | Typical relationship | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KBB Instant Cash Offer | Real cash a participating dealer will pay TODAY, no negotiation | Lowest of the four (dealer floor) | Walk-floor outside option. Any dealer trade offer below this is asking buyer to subsidize. |
| 2 | KBB Trade-In Value (Fair condition mid) | KBB book trade-in value at stated condition | $600-$1,300 above KBB Instant Offer | Mid; fair dealer trade target. Use as primary anchor. |
| 3 | KBB Private Party Value | What buyer can realistically sell for on Craigslist / FB Marketplace | $1,500-$3,000 above KBB Trade-In; transacts 7-14 days for clean 1-owner | Upper bound; the price the buyer trades convenience for. |
| 4 | Wholesale (Manheim MMR / Black Book) | Dealer auction acquisition floor | Lowest; dealer-internal | Internal benchmark only; buyers rarely see MMR. Estimate ~5-10% below KBB Instant Offer for popular models. |
| **5** | **Battery State of Health (SoH)** -- **EV/PHEV only** | **Verified pack capacity retention (%) from OBD-II / dealer scan / mfr app -- NOT the dashboard range estimate** | **Cross-cutting modifier on anchors 1-4, not a standalone $ figure** | **The dominant EV factor: for a used EV the pack is the most expensive component, so SoH moves resale more than paint/trim/often mileage. Books usually ignore it -- so treat books as a soft ceiling and adjust for SoH.** |

Also useful: NADA Trade-In Clean is often $300-$700 above KBB Trade-In on
popular Hondas/Toyotas; treat as higher-of-two-books anchor when negotiating.

### Anchor 5 -- battery SoH (EV/PHEV trades)

For any EV or PHEV trade, books (KBB/NADA/Black Book) systematically miss the
battery: they often apply **no SoH adjustment**, lag fast EV price swings by
months, and lump EVs onto an ICE depreciation curve. So anchors 1-4 are
necessary but not sufficient -- layer SoH on top. Approximate market behavior
(verify; no rigid formula -- dealers apply an invisible adjustment table):

| SoH band | Effect vs. a healthy peer (same model/age/miles) |
|---|---|
| 90-95%+ | Premium / supports book |
| ~85-89% | Roughly book; minor or no deduct |
| ~80-84% | Begins to discount |
| < ~80% | Market discounts ~10-20% |
| < ~70% | Steep discount; hard to move |

Magnitudes seen in market commentary (verify): 92% vs. 82% SoH on a 5-yr-old EV
can differ **$3,000-$5,000**; below ~82% SoH add another **$2,000-$5,000** risk
discount; **non-transferable factory battery warranty ≈ another ~$5,000 of
discount**, while transferable remaining warranty is a buyer premium lever.

- **Get VERIFIED SoH**, not the dash "guess-o-meter" (that's based on recent
  driving, not pack capacity). OBD-II scan / third-party battery report / dealer
  scan. Math: a 75 kWh pack now holding 64 kWh = ~15% loss.
- **Bring the SoH report to the negotiation proactively** -- a healthy-pack
  report supports premium pricing; silence lets the desk assume worst-case.
- **PHEVs:** smaller pack → smaller absolute swing, same direction; a PHEV that
  no longer holds meaningful EV-only range gets discounted toward an equivalent
  hybrid/ICE.

> **§ 25E is TERMINATED (2025-09-30), and was always a separate transaction.**
> The federal Used Clean Vehicle Credit (IRC § 25E, formerly up to $4,000) was
> **terminated by OBBBA (Public Law 119-21) for any vehicle acquired after
> 2025-09-30**, it is **not available for a 2026 used-EV purchase** and must NOT
> be counted in OTD / net-price math. See the CRITICAL banner in `ev-buyer-helper`.
> Separately (and even when it existed), § 25E attached to the buyer **purchasing**
> a qualifying used EV, NOT to the EV being **traded away**, so it never offset a
> trade valuation regardless. Historically its $25,000 price cap was measured
> **before** trade-in value, so a big trade allowance did not slip a car under the
> cap. Full mechanics + historical detail (price cap, MY≥2yr, dealer point-of-sale
> transfer + IRS ECO reporting, MAGI caps, termination 2025-09-30) live in
> `../orchestrator/references/ev_buyer_playbook.md` § 25E and `trade_in.md`
> Section 13e (HISTORICAL). Do not conflate the two, and do not present § 25E as a
> live buy-side credit.

## Capture-all-four checklist (12 fields)

Per trade_in.md, the prior 6-field placeholder is insufficient. At Phase 1
capture: (1) Year/make/model/trim, (2) Mileage, (3) Title status, (4) Lien
holder + payoff balance, (5) Key count, (6) Cosmetic issues, (7) Mechanical
issues, (8) KBB Instant Cash Offer + screenshot, (9) KBB Trade-In Value at
stated condition, (10) KBB Private Party Value, (11) NADA Trade-In Clean,
(12) Wholesale estimate (MMR or Black Book if available). **EV/PHEV adds
(13) verified battery SoH % + report source (OBD-II / dealer scan / mfr app) +
report date, and (14) does the factory battery warranty transfer to the next
owner? (Y/N + remaining term).**

## State trade-in tax credit matrix

Use the generated reviewed-field table and field provenance in `../orchestrator/references/state_fees.md`. The production `trade_credit_for_state` helper handles verified trade rules; use `compute_state_otd` for a supported complete tax profile. Do not recreate the rules in a separate skill table or a test-only helper.

Illinois restored full eligible trade credit January 1, 2022. Michigan's cap is $12,000 in 2026 under its annual schedule. Maryland permits eligible trade credit on the dealer-certified taxable purchase price. Virginia does not reduce the sales-and-use tax base for trade allowance. Other state results remain subject to their recorded evidence and transaction scope.

An unverified field means unknown. The absence of general state sales tax does not establish that a vehicle has no excise, privilege, use, local or document tax.

## Separate-sell vs trade-in decision

Compare the actual separate-sale proceeds, dealer trade allowance, independently calculated tax difference and the buyer's own convenience/time costs. Calculate trade tax savings by running the supported profile with and without trade while holding the purchase inputs constant. A headline-rate multiplication does not account for caps, tax minimums or limited local bases.

Use gross trade allowance for the eligibility calculation. Subtract payoff separately when comparing net proceeds. If no supported tax profile applies, leave the tax difference unknown and obtain a transaction-specific dealer/DMV worksheet before recommending the cheaper option.

## Lien payoff workflow

Per trade_in.md Section 4 (a-d):

| When | Step | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| T-7 days | Request 10-day payoff letter from lien holder | Letter states exact dollar amount valid through a date 10 days out. Some lien holders charge a $25 admin fee. |
| T-3 days | Dealer cuts payoff check, overnights to lien holder | Clearance typically 5-10 business days. Get a copy of the check + tracking number from dealer F&I. |
| T+0 (delivery) | Title transfer pending lien release | Dealer holds title work until lien release arrives. Buyer drives away on temp tag. |
| T+14-30 | Lien release filed with state DMV | New title issued to dealer (or assigned to next buyer). Confirm release was filed; some lien holders are slow. |

If payoff balance > trade allowance (underwater trade): the difference is rolled
into the new loan principal (cheapest financing) OR paid out of pocket. Disclose
to dealer at Phase 1 -- hiding negative equity blows up Phase 9.

## High-mileage trap

For vehicles over 100,000 miles:
- KBB Instant Cash Offer often returns "no offer" or unrealistically low.
- Private party is the realistic-only path; expect 14-30 days on market.
- If buyer cannot wait, accept dealer wholesale offer is essentially MMR.

## Separate-the-negotiation 5-round protocol

NEVER let the dealer shell-game sale price against trade allowance.

1. Round 1: Agree the new-car OTD (no trade mentioned). Lock in writing.
2. Round 2: Introduce trade. Ask for dealer's blind trade offer.
3. Round 3: Compare dealer offer to KBB Instant Cash Offer (anchor #1). If
   dealer offer < KBB Instant Cash Offer, push back with the KBB screenshot.
4. Round 4: Target KBB Trade-In Value (anchor #2). Acceptable landing zone:
   anywhere between KBB Instant Cash Offer and KBB Trade-In.
5. Round 5: If dealer drops new-car OTD to "compensate" for low trade, reject.
   The lock from Round 1 stands; trade allowance is its own line.

Per orchestrator gotcha D5: NEVER mix new vs used anchors. Used desk and new
desk have different incentive structures; mixing closes off negotiation.

## Trade-walk gotchas

- Unknown mechanical issues (CEL on, transmission slip, AC weak): request a
  1-2 week PPI window. Dealers will undervalue $1,000-$3,000 to cover risk.
  Independent shop inspection ($150) often saves more than it costs.
- Aftermarket modifications (lift, wheels, audio, tune): KBB does NOT count
  them. Dealers undervalue or refuse. Either restore stock parts and sell those
  separately, or accept the hit.
- Cosmetic damage: dealer deducts $200-$500 per item (curb rash per wheel,
  paint chip, dent). Touch-up + wheel refurb pre-trade is high-ROI if buyer has
  time.
- Missing 2nd key: $200-$500 deduct. Get key cut+programmed pre-trade
  ($150-$300) when worth it.

## Cross-references

- `../orchestrator/references/trade_in.md` -- full reference (4-anchor table,
  12-field capture, lien payoff details, ACV vs trade allowance; **Section 13 =
  EV/PHEV battery-SoH trade discount + § 25E annotation**).
- `../orchestrator/references/ev_buyer_playbook.md` -- **EV/PHEV source of
  truth**: battery health, charging/range, EV dealer tactics, and the now-terminated
  federal credits (§ 30D $7,500 new / § 25E $4,000 used / § 45W $7,500 lease, all
  TERMINATED 2025-09-30, HISTORICAL only; state rebates are the only live incentive
  layer, see the `ev-buyer-helper` CRITICAL banner). Use for the buyer's *acquisition*
  of a used EV; this skill's anchor 5 covers the *outgoing* EV trade.
- `../orchestrator/references/state_fees.md` -- reviewed state trade fields, supported profiles and generated synthetic OTD cases.
- `../orchestrator/SKILL.md` gotcha D5 -- never mix new vs used anchors.

## Output contract

```
Trade valuation pass -- <timestamp>
  Vehicle: <Y/M/M/T, miles, condition, powertrain: ICE/HEV/PHEV/BEV>
  Anchors: KBB-Instant $X / KBB-Trade $Y / KBB-Private $Z / NADA $N
  Battery (EV/PHEV only): SoH <%> via <OBD-II/dealer/app> on <date>;
    warranty transfers? <Y/N, term>; SoH adj to book: <+/-$ or band note>
  Lien: $payoff balance, holder, 10-day letter on file? (Y/N)
  State: <ST>, trade credit: <YES/NO/CAP>
  Tax savings if traded: $<amount>
  Decision: TRADE-IN vs SEPARATE-SELL (with reasoning)
  Walk-floor: $<KBB Instant Offer>
  Negotiation target: $<KBB Trade-In Value>
```

Hand off to Phase 6 negotiation when traded; hand off to private-party listing
help when separate-sell.

When installed through directory links, resolve this SKILL.md to its source directory before following relative file paths. Those paths refer to the repository layout.