Psci Theory And Hypotheses

---
name: psci-theory-and-hypotheses
description: Use when stating the theory and hypotheses for a Psychological Science manuscript. The journal's credibility norms require a clear separation of confirmatory (preregistered) from exploratory analyses and theory stated before results. Structures the argument; it does not run analyses.
---

# Theory & Hypotheses (psci-theory-and-hypotheses)

Psychological Science rewards a **clear theoretical claim** and **honest hypothesis status**. Because
preregistration quality is weighed and a Research Transparency Statement is required, the cardinal
rule is: **state theory and confirmatory hypotheses before the data**, and label exploratory results
as exploratory.

## When to trigger

- Writing the theoretical framing and hypotheses
- Preparing a preregistration / pre-analysis plan (Registered Report or OSF)
- Reconciling what you predicted with what you found
- A reviewer flagged the work as "post hoc," "atheoretical," or "HARKed"

## Build the argument

1. **State the theory.** What mechanism or principle predicts the effect, and why. Keep it crisp —
   the format does not allow a long theoretical treatise.
2. **Derive directional hypotheses.** Translate the theory into specific, testable predictions
   (direction and, where possible, magnitude/effect-size expectations).
3. **Mark hypothesis status.** Separate **confirmatory** (preregistered, predicted in advance) from
   **exploratory** (generated after seeing data) analyses — clearly, in the text.
4. **Specify what would disconfirm.** Say which results would count against the theory; this is what
   makes a test credible.
5. **Match to the right format.** If the theory is best tested prospectively and confirmatorily, a
   **Registered Report** makes the claim far stronger (route via `psci-review-process`).

## Avoiding HARKing (Hypothesizing After Results are Known)

- Do not present an exploratory finding as if it were predicted.
- If you discovered something post hoc, **say so** and frame it as a hypothesis for future
  confirmation — Psychological Science values this honesty and the Transparency Statement surfaces it.

## Anti-patterns

- Theory written to fit the result after the fact (HARKing)
- Vague, non-directional "we expect a relationship" hypotheses
- No statement of what would disconfirm the theory
- Blurring confirmatory and exploratory analyses
- A theory section so long it breaks the 2,000-word budget

## Output format

```
【Theory】the mechanism/principle, briefly
【Hypotheses】directional, testable (H1, H2, …)
【Status】which are confirmatory (preregistered) vs exploratory
【Disconfirming evidence】what would count against the theory
【Format fit】Research Article vs Registered Report (if confirmatory + prospective)
【Next】psci-study-design
```

## Supplementary resources

- [`../../resources/external_tools.md`](../../resources/external_tools.md) — preregistration templates and tools
- [`../../resources/official-source-map.md`](../../resources/official-source-map.md) — preregistration and transparency policy