Jpsp Theory And Hypotheses

---
name: jpsp-theory-and-hypotheses
description: Use when building the theoretical argument and deriving testable hypotheses for a Journal of Personality and Social Psychology (JPSP) manuscript, where theoretical innovation is the primary bar and each study in the package must test a specific derivation. Structures the theory; it does not invent constructs or results.
---

# Theory & Hypotheses (jpsp-theory-and-hypotheses)

JPSP's first gate is **theoretical innovation**: reviewers ask whether the paper's *underlying ideas*
are interesting and generative enough, often **independent of** how strong the data are. A package of
well-run studies with a thin idea will not clear the bar. This skill builds the theory and the
hypotheses each study tests; the studies themselves are designed in `jpsp-study-design`.

## When to trigger

- Turning a positioned gap into a precise theoretical account
- Deriving hypotheses that map onto specific studies in the package
- A reviewer questioned the novelty, mechanism, or generativity of the idea

## Ways a JPSP paper can be theoretically innovative

(Adapted from JPSP section guidance; verify per section.) A contribution can:
- develop a **new theory** and provide evidence for it;
- use an existing theory to explain a **new phenomenon**;
- make **novel connections between two theories** to address new questions;
- use a theory to **integrate previously unconnected phenomena**;
- offer a **new mechanism** for an established phenomenon;
- specify **moderators** that reconcile conflicting predictions or define when an effect occurs;
- introduce and validate a **new construct** and show it matters;
- examine an existing theory or phenomenon in an **understudied population**.

## Building the argument

1. **State the core claim** in one sentence, then the **mechanism** (the *why*).
2. **Derive hypotheses that distinguish your account from alternatives.** Each hypothesis should be
   one a competing theory would *not* predict — that is what makes the test diagnostic.
3. **Map hypotheses to studies.** H1 → Study 1 (establish), H2 → Study 2 (mechanism/mediation),
   H3 → Study 3 (moderation/boundary), etc. The package should build cumulatively.
4. **Pre-empt salient alternative explanations** (construct validity, alternative mediators,
   alternative causal models) and design at least one study to rule them out.
5. **State scope and generalization** — to which populations/contexts the theory should and should
   not extend.

## Anti-patterns

- Hypotheses so vague any result confirms them (unfalsifiable)
- A "mechanism" that merely restates the effect in different words
- Studies that all test the same hypothesis instead of building cumulatively
- HARKing: presenting exploratory findings as if they were predicted (see `jpsp-data-analysis`)
- Ignoring the obvious alternative account a reviewer will raise

## Output format

```
【Core claim】one sentence
【Mechanism】the "why"
【Innovation type】new theory / new mechanism / integration / moderator / new construct / …
【Hypotheses → studies】H1→S1, H2→S2 (mechanism), H3→S3 (boundary) …
【Diagnostic vs alternatives】which alternative each test rules out
【Scope / generalization】where the theory applies
【Next】jpsp-study-design
```

## Supplementary resources

- [`../../resources/external_tools.md`](../../resources/external_tools.md) — SEM / mediation / process tooling for testing derivations
- [`../../resources/official-source-map.md`](../../resources/official-source-map.md) — section innovation criteria and review gate