Crim Theory Building

---
name: crim-theory-building
description: Use when building the theoretical argument of a Criminology (ASC / Wiley) manuscript into a field-level contribution. Criminology rewards an explicit mechanism, scope conditions, and observable implications over a bare crime correlation, whether the work tests, extends, or adjudicates a criminological theory. Structures the argument; it does not run analyses.
---

# Theory & Argument Building (crim-theory-building)

At *Criminology* a result is not a contribution until it is attached to a **mechanism the field can use
elsewhere.** This skill turns crime findings into theory: explicit causal stories, scope conditions,
and observable implications drawn from (or pushing against) the field's theoretical traditions.

## When to trigger

- The empirics are strong but the "so what / why does crime behave this way" is thin
- A reviewer said the paper is "atheoretical," "ad hoc," or "just a finding"
- You need to state mechanisms, assumptions, and scope conditions explicitly
- You are extending or adjudicating between two criminological theories

## Build the argument

1. **Concept.** Define the key constructs precisely — offending vs. arrest, desistance vs. a lull,
   victimization vs. reporting, legitimacy vs. compliance. Distinguish each from its neighbors.
2. **Mechanism.** The causal story: who does what, why, under what incentives, controls, opportunities,
   or strains. Make it a *process*, not a regression coefficient.
3. **Observable implications.** What we should see if the mechanism operates — and what we should *not*
   see. These become the tests in `crim-research-design` (e.g., a within-individual change in offending
   following a turning point; displacement vs. diffusion around a hot spot).
4. **Scope conditions.** Where the argument holds and where it does not — by age, offense type,
   developmental stage, place, or institutional context. Portability ≠ universality.

## Engage the theoretical tradition (the Criminology move)

- **Locate** the argument in a recognizable theory (control, social learning, strain/GST, routine
  activity/opportunity, life-course/age-graded informal social control, labeling, deterrence,
  procedural justice, social disorganization/collective efficacy) — or say plainly how it revises one.
- **Adjudicate** where you can: state what your argument predicts that the leading rival theory does
  not, so the test in `crim-research-design` can separate them.
- **Distinguish between- vs. within-person** logics explicitly — many criminology theories live or die
  on whether the effect is a stable trait or a within-individual change.

## The "portability" test (Criminology-specific)

Ask: *Could a criminologist working on a different offense, age group, or setting import this
mechanism?* If yes, you have a field-level contribution. If it only works for your exact sample,
tighten it into a general logic or reframe (back to `crim-topic-selection`).

## Anti-patterns

- "Hypothesizing after results are known" (HARKing) — state theory before tests; preregister where possible
- Naming a theory in the intro but never deriving a testable implication from it
- Conflating between-person association with within-person change
- Universal claims with no scope conditions (e.g., "deterrence works") with no offense/context limits
- Burying the mechanism under the regression tables

## Output format

```
【Core claim】one sentence
【Tradition】theory engaged / extended / adjudicated
【Mechanism】the causal/behavioral story
【Observable implications】testable consequences (incl. within-person) → research-design
【Scope conditions】where it holds / fails (age, offense, place, context)
【Portability】who else in criminology can use this argument
【Next】crim-research-design
```

## Supplementary resources

- [`../../resources/external_tools.md`](../../resources/external_tools.md) — life-course and longitudinal data for testing mechanisms
- [`../../resources/official-source-map.md`](../../resources/official-source-map.md) — Criminology scope and theory-forward expectations