Aer Workflow

---
name: aer-workflow
description: Use when deciding which AER-skills sub-skill to use next, or when sequencing manuscript work from topic selection through rebuttal for the American Economic Review, AER:Insights, or AEJ journals. Routes — does not replace — the specialized skills.
---

# AER Workflow

## Overview

This is the router. It does not replace any specialized skill. It tells you which one to use next, and in what order.

Default assumption: unless the user names a different venue, the manuscript targets **AER**, **AER: Insights**, or an **AEJ** journal — not a finance journal, not a generic economics field journal, and not a working-paper repository.

## When to Use

- The user asks "what should I work on next?"
- The user dumps a draft and you must decide where the bottleneck is
- The user is rotating between writing, empirics, and revision and loses track of which stage they are in
- A new reviewer report has arrived and the work mode must switch from drafting to rebuttal

## Routing Map

Use:

- `aer-topic-selection` when the project is new, when the user is undecided between AER / Insights / an AEJ, or when the contribution sentence cannot be written in one line
- `aer-identification` when the empirical design is the bottleneck — DiD, IV, RDD, SCM, shift-share, event study, RCT analysis
- `aer-robustness` when the main results exist but referee-anticipating checks (placebo, heterogeneity, mechanism, alternative samples) are missing or weak
- `aer-introduction` when drafting or rewriting the introduction, or when the abstract is over 100 words
- `aer-tables-figures` when regression tables are inconsistent, oversized, footnote-bloated, or do not match AER house style
- `aer-replication` when preparing the AEA Data and Code Availability deposit, writing the README, or auditing reproducibility before acceptance
- `aer-submission` when running the final preflight before clicking submit — length, format, cover letter, conflicts
- `aer-rebuttal` when reviewer comments exist and a point-by-point response letter plus aligned manuscript edits are needed

## Default Sequence

For most empirical AER-track manuscripts, prefer this order:

1. `aer-topic-selection` — fix the contribution sentence and the target venue *before* anything else
2. `aer-identification` — stress-test the design; if it fails here, no later skill saves the paper
3. `aer-robustness` — anticipate the three robustness checks the median referee will demand
4. `aer-introduction` — only now write the five-paragraph intro and the 100-word abstract
5. `aer-tables-figures` — finalize the main exhibits in AER house style
6. `aer-replication` — assemble the deposit package while results are still fresh in code
7. `aer-submission` — final preflight: length, format, cover letter, COI
8. `aer-rebuttal` — after external review, revise manuscript first, then write the letter against the revised version

## Decision Cues

If the user says...

- *"I have an idea but I don't know if it's AER-worthy"* → `aer-topic-selection`
- *"My DiD has staggered treatment"* → `aer-identification`
- *"My first stage F is 8"* → `aer-identification` (weak-IV branch)
- *"The referee said the result might be driven by X"* → `aer-robustness`
- *"My intro is 4 pages and the editor hated it"* → `aer-introduction`
- *"My table 3 has 14 columns"* → `aer-tables-figures`
- *"The Data Editor flagged my README"* → `aer-replication`
- *"I'm submitting tomorrow"* → `aer-submission`
- *"I got an R&R with three reports"* → `aer-rebuttal`

## Common Mistakes

- polishing the introduction before the identification strategy is stable
- writing the abstract before deciding AER vs AER:Insights (the 100-word limit is the same but the *framing* differs sharply)
- treating tables and figures as a final-week task; AER tables drive how reviewers read results
- writing the rebuttal letter against the old draft instead of the revised manuscript
- assembling the replication package only after acceptance — the AEA Data Editor's report is now part of the production timeline and can delay publication by weeks
- defaulting to the OLS + cluster-by-state recipe; modern AER demands design-based identification

## Anti-Patterns

- Using a generic "scientific writing" skill in place of `aer-introduction` — the introduction conventions differ (no heading, five-paragraph Head formula, ≤ 100-word abstract)
- Using a generic "data availability" skill in place of `aer-replication` — the AEA policy is *unusually* strict and the openICPSR workflow is specific
- Skipping `aer-topic-selection` because "I already know this is an AER paper" — desk rejection at AER is ~60% and the top-5 bar is *cross-subfield interest*, not technical competence

## Handoff Contract

Whenever this skill is invoked, end with:

```text
NEXT SKILL: <aer-skill-name>
REASON: <one sentence>
INPUTS NEEDED: <list of artifacts the next skill needs>
```

This keeps the agent loop tight when the user runs multiple skills in sequence.