Velocity Analysis

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description: Analyze velocity trends, predict capacity, and identify patterns
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# Velocity Analysis

Analyze velocity trends and predict capacity for "$ARGUMENTS". Chart historical velocity, calculate statistical measures, correlate changes with events, and recommend sprint commitment ranges.

## Prerequisites

Check that `.project/$ARGUMENTS/00-initiate.md` exists. If it does not, tell the user to run an Initiate skill first (e.g., project-charter) and stop.

If the user passes `--skip-checks`, skip the prerequisite check and log the skip to `.project/$ARGUMENTS/skip-log.md` with a timestamp and reason.

## Process

1. **Read existing context:**
   - Read `.project/$ARGUMENTS/00-initiate.md` for project context, team size, and sprint cadence
   - Read `.project/$ARGUMENTS/03-review.md` if it exists (for sprint review results, sprint metrics, and historical velocity data)
   - Read `.project/$ARGUMENTS/04-improve.md` if it exists (for retrospective action items and process changes that may have affected velocity)
   - Read `.project/$ARGUMENTS/01-plan.md` if it exists (for sprint planning data, committed points, and estimation approach)
   - Read `.project/$ARGUMENTS/02-sprint.md` if it exists (for sprint execution data and blocker history)

2. **Chart velocity over last 5-10 sprints:**
   - Collect completed story points for each of the last 5-10 sprints (or as many as are available)
   - Present velocity data as a table: sprint name/number, committed points, completed points, commitment ratio
   - Create a text-based chart showing velocity per sprint (horizontal bar chart or similar visualization)
   - If fewer than 5 sprints of data are available, note this limitation and adjust analysis accordingly
   - Separate velocity into categories if possible: new features, bug fixes, tech debt, unplanned work

3. **Calculate average velocity and standard deviation:**
   - Calculate the arithmetic mean of completed points across all available sprints
   - Calculate the standard deviation to measure velocity consistency
   - Calculate the coefficient of variation (standard deviation / mean x 100%) to express variability as a percentage
   - Interpret variability:
     - **< 15%** — highly predictable team, estimates are reliable
     - **15-30%** — normal variability, plan with a range
     - **> 30%** — high variability, investigate causes before relying on velocity for planning
   - If available, calculate a weighted moving average (more recent sprints weighted higher) for a more current picture

4. **Identify trends:**
   - Determine the overall velocity direction: improving, declining, or stable
   - Use linear regression direction across the data points to classify the trend:
     - **Improving** — positive slope, team is delivering more over time
     - **Declining** — negative slope, team is delivering less over time
     - **Stable** — slope near zero (within +/- 5% of average), consistent delivery
   - If the trend is improving, identify likely causes: team maturity, better estimation, process improvements, reduced tech debt
   - If the trend is declining, flag for investigation: team changes, increasing tech debt, morale issues, scope complexity growth
   - Note any outlier sprints (more than 2 standard deviations from the mean) and explain them separately

5. **Correlate velocity changes with events:**
   - Review the project timeline for events that may explain velocity changes:
     - **Team member changes** — new joins (ramp-up period reduces velocity), departures (knowledge loss)
     - **Holidays and vacations** — reduced capacity sprints
     - **Incidents and outages** — unplanned work displacing planned work
     - **Process changes** — new practices from retrospectives or process improvements
     - **Technical changes** — major refactors, platform migrations, new tools
   - Map each significant velocity change to its likely cause
   - Distinguish between temporary dips (holidays, incidents) and structural shifts (team size change, process change)
   - Note which events had the largest impact on velocity and how long recovery took

6. **Calculate sustainable velocity range:**
   - Define sustainable velocity as the range the team can reliably deliver without burnout
   - Calculate the range: average velocity +/- 1 standard deviation
   - This gives a low estimate (conservative) and high estimate (optimistic)
   - Exclude outlier sprints from the calculation if they were caused by one-time events
   - If the team has been consistently above average for 3+ sprints, consider updating the baseline upward
   - If the team has been consistently below average, investigate whether the average is still realistic

7. **Predict capacity for next 3 sprints:**
   - For each of the next 3 sprints, estimate expected capacity:
     - Start with the sustainable velocity range
     - Adjust for known factors: planned vacations, holidays, team changes, expected incidents
     - Express as a range: conservative (low end minus known reductions) to optimistic (high end with ideal conditions)
   - Flag any sprints with significantly reduced capacity (holidays, team members out)
   - If the team is mid-trend (improving or declining), factor the trend direction into predictions
   - Note confidence level for each prediction: high (stable team, good data), medium (some unknowns), low (major changes expected)

8. **Recommend sprint commitment range:**
   - Based on the analysis, recommend how many story points to commit to in the next sprint
   - Provide two numbers:
     - **Conservative commitment** — what the team can almost certainly deliver (low end of sustainable range, rounded down)
     - **Optimistic commitment** — what the team could deliver if everything goes well (average velocity, rounded to nearest whole number)
   - Recommend which number to use based on the team's situation:
     - Use conservative when: team is rebuilding confidence, new members are ramping up, high-risk work ahead
     - Use optimistic when: team is stable and predictable, work is well-understood, team has momentum
   - Note that velocity is a planning tool, not a performance metric — do not use it to pressure the team

9. **Write the artifact** — append to `.project/$ARGUMENTS/04-improve.md` under a `## Velocity Analysis` section:
   - **Velocity History** — table and chart of velocity over last 5-10 sprints
   - **Statistical Summary** — average velocity, standard deviation, coefficient of variation
   - **Trend Analysis** — direction (improving/declining/stable) with supporting data
   - **Event Correlation** — velocity changes mapped to team and project events
   - **Sustainable Velocity Range** — calculated range with methodology
   - **Capacity Predictions** — next 3 sprints with expected ranges and confidence levels
   - **Commitment Recommendation** — conservative and optimistic commitment for next sprint with guidance on which to use

## Output

Velocity analysis appended to `.project/$ARGUMENTS/04-improve.md`. Present a summary highlighting:
- Average velocity and variability (coefficient of variation)
- Trend direction with key contributing factors
- Sustainable velocity range
- Recommended commitment for next sprint (conservative and optimistic)
- Any sprints with reduced capacity in the next 3-sprint window