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---
description: Model best, base, and worst-case financial scenarios
---
# Scenario
Model financial scenarios for "$ARGUMENTS". Build structured best/base/worst-case projections to understand the range of possible outcomes and prepare contingency plans.
## Prerequisites
None — utility skill, run anytime. Works best when financial data exists in `.metapowers/finance/$ARGUMENTS/`.
## Process
1. **Gather context:**
- If prior phase artifacts exist, read them for baseline data
- Ask the user what decision or question the scenarios should inform
- Determine the time horizon for the scenarios
2. **Define scenario parameters:**
- Identify the 5-8 key variables that drive outcomes (revenue growth, churn, ARPU, hiring pace, etc.)
- For each variable, define best/base/worst values with rationale
- Reference `financial-model-template.md` for scenario table structure
3. **Build three scenarios:**
- **Best case:** optimistic but plausible assumptions
- **Base case:** most likely outcome based on current trajectory
- **Worst case:** pessimistic but survivable assumptions
- For each: project revenue, expenses, cash flow, and runway
4. **Analyze implications:**
- What decisions change between scenarios?
- At what point does the worst case become dangerous?
- What early warning signals distinguish which scenario is unfolding?
- What contingency actions should be prepared?
5. **Write the artifact** to `.metapowers/finance/$ARGUMENTS/scenario.md` with sections:
- **Scenario Question** — what decision this analysis informs
- **Variable Assumptions** — table of inputs per scenario
- **Scenario Projections** — financial outcomes per scenario
- **Decision Triggers** — signals that indicate which scenario is playing out
- **Contingency Plans** — actions to take in each scenario
## Output
The scenario analysis written to `.metapowers/finance/$ARGUMENTS/scenario.md`. Present a summary highlighting:
- Range of outcomes (worst to best)
- Key differentiating variables
- Decision triggers and contingency plans
