Project Management Estimation

---
name: project-management-estimation
description: Estimate a backlog with story points, T-shirt sizes or planning poker against reference stories, flag stories to split and project how many sprints the work will take. Use when the user has stories that need sizing or asks how long the backlog will take to deliver. Not for this sprint's capacity or commitment; see /project-management-sprint-planning.
metadata:
  argument-hint: "[project] [--skip-checks]"
  workflow: project-management
  phase: 1
  artifact: 01-plan.md
---

# Estimation

Estimate the work for "$ARGUMENTS". Select an estimation method, establish reference stories for calibration, estimate each story relative to references, flag stories needing splitting, and calculate total backlog size and sprint projections.

**Arguments.** `$ARGUMENTS` may contain the project name and optional flags. Take the first token as `<project>` and treat `--skip-checks` as a flag; never include flags in file paths. All paths below use `<project>`. If `--skip-checks` is present, skip the prerequisite check and, **before writing any artifact**, append one line to `.singularskills/log.jsonl`: `{"ts":"<ISO timestamp>","skill":"project-management-estimation","workflow":"project-management","phase":1,"project":"<project>","event":"skipped","artifact":"01-plan.md","note":"<reason or \"none given\">"}`.

## Prerequisites

**Part of a workflow.** This skill is phase 1 (Plan) of the Scrum workflow (`project-management`); cross-domain workflows run it too. First check `.singularskills/log.jsonl` for an open run for this project: a `run-started` line with `"project":"<project>"` and no later `run-finished` line for the same `workflow` and `project`. If one exists, the conductor is running you: continue here. Otherwise, if the user asked to start, run, continue or resume a process or workflow rather than this one step, do not continue here: invoke the `workflow` skill with the workflow the user asked for, or `project-management` when they named none, followed by `<project>`; it runs this phase in order, asks before it writes and records the run. Otherwise continue here: a later phase runs on its own, behind its gate.

Run this skill's gate before writing: `sh <this skill's folder>/scripts/gate.sh <project> <project root>`, where `<project root>` is the folder that contains `.singularskills/` (use `.` when you are already there). If it exits non-zero, stop and tell the user what it printed, unless `--skip-checks` was given (see Arguments). On a refusal, before you stop, append this line to `.singularskills/log.jsonl` (create the folder and file if missing): `{"ts":"<ISO timestamp>","skill":"project-management-estimation","workflow":"project-management","phase":1,"project":"<project>","event":"refused","artifact":"01-plan.md","note":"<what the gate printed>"}`. Once the gate has passed, or under `--skip-checks` once you have appended the `skipped` line, append this line before you start work: `{"ts":"<ISO timestamp>","skill":"project-management-estimation","workflow":"project-management","phase":1,"project":"<project>","event":"started","artifact":"01-plan.md","note":""}`.

Check that `.singularskills/project-management/<project>/00-initiate.md` exists. If it does not, tell the user to run an Initiate skill first (e.g., project-charter) and stop.

## Process

1. **Read existing context:**
   - Read `.singularskills/project-management/<project>/00-initiate.md` for charter and team context
   - Read `.singularskills/project-management/<project>/01-plan.md` if it exists (for backlog, user stories, and roadmap)
   - Read `references/scrum-guide.md` for Scrum alignment

2. **Select the estimation method:**
   - **Story points with Fibonacci scale (recommended):** 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21 — measures relative complexity, effort, and uncertainty
   - **T-shirt sizing:** XS, S, M, L, XL — useful for early rough estimation before detailed planning
   - **Planning poker:** team-based estimation using story points with discussion rounds
   - Document the selected method and rationale
   - If the team has an existing preference, use that

3. **Establish reference stories (calibration):**
   - Select 2-3 well-understood stories from the backlog as reference points:
     - **"1" story** — the simplest meaningful change (e.g., update a label, add a tooltip)
     - **"5" story** — moderate complexity (e.g., build a form with validation, add a new API endpoint)
     - **"8" story** — significant complexity (e.g., implement a multi-step workflow, add a new integration)
   - Document why each reference story was chosen and what makes it that size
   - These references anchor all subsequent estimates

4. **Estimate each story relative to references:**
   - Compare each story to the reference stories: is it simpler, similar, or more complex?
   - Assign a story point value from the Fibonacci scale
   - Consider three dimensions: complexity (how hard?), effort (how much work?), uncertainty (how unknown?)
   - Document brief rationale for estimates that may be surprising (very high or very low)
   - For T-shirt sizing: map XS=1, S=2, M=3-5, L=8, XL=13+

5. **Flag stories that need splitting:**
   - Any story estimated at >13 points should be flagged for splitting
   - Stories at 13 points should be reviewed — can they be split for lower risk?
   - For flagged stories, suggest splitting strategies (by workflow, data variation, operation, or persona)
   - Re-estimate the split stories

6. **Calculate total backlog size:**
   - Sum all story points across the entire backlog
   - Break down by epic, theme, priority (Must/Should/Could), and release milestone
   - Calculate MVP size (total points for Must-have or Release 1 stories)
   - Identify the largest epics and any estimation outliers

7. **Estimate sprint and timeline projections:**
   - For new teams: assume velocity of 20-30 points per sprint (start conservative at 20)
   - For existing teams: use average of last 3 sprints as velocity baseline
   - Calculate: number of sprints = total backlog size / expected velocity
   - Project timeline: number of sprints x sprint length
   - Calculate MVP delivery estimate separately
   - Add buffer: +20% for known risks, +40% for high-uncertainty projects
   - Compare projected timeline with roadmap milestones — flag misalignments

8. **Write the artifact** — append to `.singularskills/project-management/<project>/01-plan.md` under a `## Estimation` section. Create the file with a `# Plan — <project>` heading if it does not exist; if a `## Estimation` section already exists, replace only that section. The section contains:
   - **Method** — selected estimation approach and rationale
   - **Reference Stories** — calibration stories with point values and rationale
   - **Estimated Backlog** — each story with its estimate, organized by epic
   - **Stories to Split** — flagged stories with recommended splitting strategies
   - **Backlog Size Summary** — total points, breakdown by epic/priority/release
   - **Sprint Projections** — velocity assumption, number of sprints, projected timeline, buffer

## Output

Estimation appended to `.singularskills/project-management/<project>/01-plan.md`. Present a summary highlighting:
- Estimation method used and reference stories selected
- Total backlog size in story points
- MVP size and estimated delivery timeline
- Number of stories flagged for splitting
- Projected number of sprints with buffer

**Record the run.** After you have written your section, append this line to `.singularskills/log.jsonl` (the `started` line of Prerequisites, with `"event":"finished"`): `{"ts":"<ISO timestamp>","skill":"project-management-estimation","workflow":"project-management","phase":1,"project":"<project>","event":"finished","artifact":"01-plan.md","note":""}`.

This artifact is shared by every skill of phase 1 (Plan). The frontmatter is written once, by whoever creates the file: if you create it, open it with the block below (`skill` is the phase title, `started` the time of that first write; `gate` is `passed` when the gate ran clean and `skipped` under `--skip-checks`); if it already exists, leave the block alone except to update `finished` and to set `gate` to the worst value among the sections (`skipped` over `passed`).

```yaml
---
skill: Plan
workflow: project-management
phase: 1
project: <project>
started: <ISO timestamp>
finished: <ISO timestamp>
agent: <the agent you run in, or "unknown">
gate: <passed|skipped>
---
```

Open your `## Estimation` section with one italic line, `*<skill name> · <ISO timestamp> · gate: <passed|skipped>*` (your skill name is `project-management-estimation`).

End your section with `### Decisions` and `### Open questions` (one level under your `## Estimation` heading, so the section stays one block), in this shape:

```markdown
### Decisions
- <what was chosen> — <why> — <what was rejected>

### Open questions
- <what the next phase or a reviewer must settle>
```