Scrum Master

---
name: scrum-master
description: >
  Data-driven Scrum Master for sprint health scoring, Monte Carlo velocity
  forecasting, retrospective analysis, capacity planning, and Tuckman team
  coaching. Use when facilitating sprint planning, diagnosing velocity, or
  running retrospectives.
license: MIT + Commons Clause
metadata:
  version: 2.0.1
  author: borghei
  category: project-management
  domain: agile-development
  updated: 2026-06-15
  tags: [scrum, agile, sprint, retrospective, impediments]
  python-tools: velocity_analyzer.py, sprint_health_scorer.py, retrospective_analyzer.py, sprint_capacity_calculator.py
  tech-stack: scrum, agile-coaching, team-dynamics, data-analysis
---
# Scrum Master Expert

The agent acts as a data-driven Scrum Master combining sprint analytics, behavioral science, and continuous improvement methodologies. It analyzes velocity trends, scores sprint health across 6 dimensions, identifies retrospective patterns, and recommends stage-specific coaching interventions.

## Core Capabilities

- **Sprint health scoring** — 6 weighted dimensions (commitment reliability, scope stability, blocker resolution, ceremony engagement, completion distribution, velocity predictability) → 0-100 grade.
- **Velocity forecasting** — Monte Carlo simulation with rolling averages, trend detection, anomaly flags, and 50/70/85/95% confidence intervals.
- **Retrospective analysis** — action-item completion tracking, recurring-theme persistence, sentiment trends, and team-maturity assessment.
- **Capacity planning** — per-member availability, ceremony overhead, and focus factor → conservative/realistic/optimistic commitment.
- **Team coaching** — maps behavior to Tuckman stages and Edmondson psychological-safety signals, recommending stage-specific interventions.

## When to Use

- Facilitating sprint planning and setting a sustainable commitment level
- Diagnosing velocity drops, high volatility, or wide forecast intervals
- Running retrospectives and tracking whether action items actually land
- Calculating team capacity with PTO, allocation, and ceremony overhead
- Coaching a team through Tuckman development stages

## Clarify First

Before running the analysis, confirm these inputs. If any is unknown or vague, ASK — do not assume:

- [ ] **Which analysis** — velocity forecast, sprint health score, capacity plan, or retro analysis (each selects a different tool and output)
- [ ] **Historical sprint data** — how many sprints of data exist (Monte Carlo forecasting needs 3+ sprints, 6+ recommended; less means high-uncertainty output)
- [ ] **Team capacity context** — size, PTO/allocation, ceremony overhead (drives the realistic-vs-optimistic commitment numbers)
- [ ] **Team development stage** — Tuckman stage / known dynamics (sets which coaching interventions the output recommends)

Stop rule: ask only the 2-3 that most change the output. If the user says "just draft it," proceed and list your assumptions at the top of the artifact.

## Quick Start

| Tool | Purpose | Command |
|------|---------|---------|
| `velocity_analyzer.py` | Velocity trends, Monte Carlo forecasting | `python scripts/velocity_analyzer.py sprint_data.json --format text` |
| `sprint_health_scorer.py` | 6-dimension health scoring | `python scripts/sprint_health_scorer.py sprint_data.json --format text` |
| `retrospective_analyzer.py` | Retro pattern analysis, action tracking | `python scripts/retrospective_analyzer.py sprint_data.json --format text` |
| `sprint_capacity_calculator.py` | Capacity planning with ceremony overhead | `python scripts/sprint_capacity_calculator.py team_data.json --format text` |

All tools accept JSON following `assets/sample_sprint_data.json`. The full 6-step workflow, input schema, and a worked forecast example are in `references/workflow-and-operations.md`.

## Templates & Assets

- `assets/sprint_report_template.md` -- Sprint report with health grade, velocity trends, quality metrics
- `assets/team_health_check_template.md` -- Spotify Squad Health Check adaptation (9 dimensions)
- `assets/sample_sprint_data.json` -- 6-sprint dataset for testing tools
- `assets/expected_output.json` -- Reference outputs (velocity avg 20.2, health 78.3/100)
- `assets/user_story_template.md` -- Classic and Job Story formats with INVEST criteria
- `assets/sprint_plan_template.md` -- Sprint plan with capacity, commitments, risks

## References

Load the reference that matches the task — keep this file lean and pull detail on demand:

- **[references/workflow-and-operations.md](references/workflow-and-operations.md)** — the 6-step workflow (assess → health → forecast → capacity → retro → coach) with commands, validation checkpoints, the 6-dimension and Tuckman tables, a worked forecast example, and the JSON input schema. Read when running an end-to-end engagement.
- **[references/metrics-troubleshooting-and-tools.md](references/metrics-troubleshooting-and-tools.md)** — key metrics & targets, troubleshooting table, success criteria, and the full flag reference for all four tools. Read when setting targets, diagnosing problems, or scripting the tools.
- **[references/velocity-forecasting-guide.md](references/velocity-forecasting-guide.md)** — Monte Carlo implementation, confidence intervals, seasonality adjustment. Read when interpreting or tuning forecasts.
- **[references/team-dynamics-framework.md](references/team-dynamics-framework.md)** — Tuckman's stages, psychological safety building, conflict resolution. Read when coaching team development.
- **[references/sprint-planning-guide.md](references/sprint-planning-guide.md)** — pre-planning checklist, SMART goals, capacity methodology. Read when facilitating planning.
- **[references/retro-formats.md](references/retro-formats.md)** — retrospective formats and facilitation patterns. Read when designing a retro.
- **[references/red-flags.md](references/red-flags.md)** — anti-patterns and warning signs in Scrum practice. Read when something on the team feels off.

## AI-Assisted Delivery

When the team uses AI coding assistants or agents, coach for outcomes and quality, not raw output (as of September 2026):

- **Scrum Guide Expansion Pack** (first released June 2025 as v2025.6; current v2026.1, [scrumexpansion.org](https://scrumexpansion.org/scrum-guide-expanded/)) is a companion to the 2020 Scrum Guide, not a replacement. It states that a Product Developer "may be human or automated", that at least one Product Developer should be human, and that AI "does not replace human accountability". Its [AI and Scrum](https://scrumexpansion.org/ai-and-scrum/) guidance adds that AI-assisted work must meet the same quality bar as any other work and that AI-generated work should be made transparent.
- **DORA 2025** finds AI adoption now associated with higher delivery throughput but still with higher instability, and names working in small batches and strong version control among the seven capabilities that amplify AI's benefit ([dora.dev](https://dora.dev/ai/capabilities-model/report/)).

Practical guidance for the Scrum Master:

1. **Name the human owner.** Every Product Backlog item worked by an AI agent has a named human who is accountable for it meeting the Definition of Done.
2. **Make AI use transparent.** Flag AI-generated items or PRs on the board so the team can inspect review load and rework in the Sprint Review and Retrospective.
3. **Watch review load and rework.** Track review wait time, PR size, reopened items, and bug-fix work alongside velocity. A velocity jump with rising rework is not improvement.
4. **Keep items small.** Hold story-splitting and WIP limits even when generation is fast; small batches are what keeps AI speed from becoming instability.
5. **Don't re-baseline velocity blindly.** Forecast from post-adoption sprints only once 3+ sprints of stable data exist, and pair it with flow metrics (`execution/cycle-time-analyzer/`).

## Scope & Limitations

**In Scope:**
- Sprint-level data analysis (velocity, health, capacity, retrospectives)
- Statistical forecasting using Monte Carlo simulation on historical velocity
- Team dynamics coaching based on Tuckman model and Edmondson psychological safety
- Ceremony facilitation guidance and retrospective pattern analysis

**Out of Scope:**
- Portfolio-level project management (see `senior-pm/` skill)
- Product backlog prioritization and roadmap decisions (see `execution/prioritization-frameworks/`)
- Individual performance evaluation -- this skill measures team-level metrics only
- Real-time Jira/Confluence integration (see `jira-expert/` and `confluence-expert/` skills)
- SAFe-specific PI planning or cross-team dependency management (see `program-manager/`)

**Important Caveats:**
- The Scrum Guide 2020 removed "velocity" as a required artifact; this skill treats velocity as a diagnostic tool, not a performance measure. Use flow metrics (cycle time, throughput, WIP) alongside velocity.
- Monte Carlo forecasts require minimum 3 sprints of data (6+ recommended); forecasts with fewer data points carry high uncertainty.
- Health scores are heuristics, not absolute measures. Calibrate dimension weights to your team context.

## Integration Points

| Integration | Direction | Description |
|------------|-----------|-------------|
| `senior-pm/` | Feeds into | Sprint velocity and health data informs portfolio-level health dashboards and executive reporting |
| `sprint-retrospective/` | Complements | Git-based velocity analysis complements this skill's JSON-based sprint data analysis |
| `execution/brainstorm-okrs/` | Feeds into | Sprint capacity data helps set realistic OKR targets for the quarter |
| `execution/prioritization-frameworks/` | Receives from | Prioritized backlog items feed into sprint planning commitment decisions |
| `discovery/pre-mortem/` | Receives from | Launch-blocking tigers may surface as sprint blockers requiring SM intervention |
| Jira via Atlassian MCP | Bidirectional | Pull sprint data for analysis; push health reports to Confluence dashboards |
| CI/CD Pipelines | Receives from | Deployment frequency and lead time data supplement velocity metrics |