'"Calculating optimal position sizes using Kelly criterion, volatility"
Scanned 6/12/2026
Install via CLI
Skills Directoryopenskills install paulpas/agent-skill-router---
name: risk-position-sizing
compatibility: opencode
completeness: 95
content-types:
- code
- guidance
- config
- do-dont
description: '"Calculating optimal position sizes using Kelly criterion, volatility"
adjustments, and edge-based sizing to maximize long-term growth while managing risk'
license: MIT
maturity: stable
metadata:
domain: trading
output-format: code
related-skills: backtest-drawdown-analysis, exchange-order-execution-api
role: implementation
scope: implementation
triggers: calculating, optimal, risk position sizing, risk-position-sizing, sizes
archetypes:
- tactical
anti_triggers:
- brainstorming
- vague ideation
- no risk management
response_profile:
verbosity: low
directive_strength: high
abstraction_level: operational
version: "1.0.0"
---
**Role:** Guide an AI coding assistant to implement mathematically sound position sizing that balances growth optimization with capital preservation across varying market conditions
**Philosophy:** Position sizing is the most important factor in trading success—far more significant than entry timing or strategy selection. Systems must calculate position sizes dynamically based on edge strength, volatility, account drawdown, and market conditions. Static position sizing ignores the probabilistic nature of trading and leads to suboptimal outcomes. Risk should be proportional to opportunity.
## Key Principles
1. **Kelly Criterion as Growth Optimizer**: Full Kelly maximizes long-term growth but is volatile; fractional Kelly provides smoother equity curves. Position size should be a function of edge and odds.
2. **Volatility-Adjusted Sizing**: Higher volatility requires smaller positions to maintain equivalent risk. Sizing should scale inversely with volatility metrics (ATR, standard deviation).
3. **Edge-Weighted Position Sizing**: Position size should scale with the strength of the trading signal. Stronger edges justify larger positions; weaker edges warrant smaller positions or no position at all.
4. **Drawdown-Constrained Sizing**: Position size must be reduced as account drawdown increases. This implements risk aversion and prevents terminal ruin during losing streaks.
5. **Fixed Fractional as Baseline**: Use fixed fractional position sizing as a robust baseline that automatically scales with account equity while maintaining consistent risk profiles.
## Implementation Guidelines
### Structure
- Core logic: `risk_engine/position_sizing.py`
- Kelly calculations: `risk_engine/kelly.py`
- Volatility adjustments: `risk_engine/volatility.py`
- Edge adjustments: `risk_engine/edge.py`
- Tests: `tests/test_position_sizing.py`
### Patterns to Follow
- **Early Exit**: Reject positions when edge or volatility data is unavailable
- **Atomic Predictability**: Position size calculations are deterministic given inputs
- **Fail Fast**: Halt when Kelly fraction is negative or invalid
- **Intentional Naming**: Clear names for sizing methods (fractional_kelly, volatility_adjusted)
- **Parse Don't Validate**: Position sizing data parsed at boundaries, validated internally
## Code Examples
```python
# Example 1: Full and Fractional Kelly Position Sizing
from dataclasses import dataclass
from typing import Optional
from decimal import Decimal
@dataclass
class KellyResult:
"""Result of Kelly calculation"""
kelly_fraction: float # Recommended position size (0-1)
expected_growth: float # Expected growth rate
volatility_adjusted: float # Adjusted for volatility
is_valid: bool
reason: str = ""
class KellyCalculator:
"""
Calculates optimal position sizing using Kelly criterion
Kelly Formula: f = W - [(1-W) / R]
Where:
f = Kelly fraction
W = Win rate (0-1)
R = Win/Loss ratio (avg_win / abs(avg_loss))
"""
def __init__(self, config: dict = None):
self.config = config or {}
self.max_kelly_fraction = self.config.get('max_kelly_fraction', 0.5)
self.min_trades_required = self.config.get('min_trades_required', 30)
def calculate_full_kelly(
self,
win_rate: float,
avg_win: float,
avg_loss: float
) -> float:
"""
Calculate full Kelly position size
Args:
win_rate: Percentage of winning trades (0-1)
avg_win: Average win amount (positive)
avg_loss: Average loss amount (negative)
Returns:
Kelly fraction (0-1), clamped to max_kelly_fraction
"""
if win_rate <= 0 or win_rate >= 1:
return 0.0
if avg_win <= 0 or avg_loss >= 0:
return 0.0
win_loss_ratio = avg_win / abs(avg_loss)
# Handle edge case where win_loss_ratio <= 1
if win_loss_ratio <= 1 and win_rate <= 0.5:
return 0.0
kelly = win_rate - ((1 - win_rate) / win_loss_ratio)
# Clamp to valid range
return max(0.0, min(kelly, self.max_kelly_fraction))
def calculate_fractional_kelly(
self,
win_rate: float,
avg_win: float,
avg_loss: float,
kelly_fraction: float = 0.25
) -> float:
"""
Calculate fractional Kelly position size
Fractional Kelly = Kelly * fraction
Common fractions: 0.25 (quarter Kelly), 0.5 (half Kelly)
Args:
win_rate: Percentage of winning trades (0-1)
avg_win: Average win amount (positive)
avg_loss: Average loss amount (negative)
kelly_fraction: Fraction of full Kelly to use (default 0.25)
Returns:
Fractional Kelly fraction (0-1)
"""
full_kelly = self.calculate_full_kelly(win_rate, avg_win, avg_loss)
return full_kelly * kelly_fraction
def calculate_kelly_with_edge(
self,
win_rate: float,
avg_win: float,
avg_loss: float,
edge_strength: float = 1.0
) -> KellyResult:
"""
Calculate Kelly with edge strength multiplier
Args:
win_rate: Percentage of winning trades (0-1)
avg_win: Average win amount (positive)
avg_loss: Average loss amount (negative)
edge_strength: Multiplier for Kelly (1.0 = full, >1 = confident, <1 = uncertain)
Returns:
KellyResult with calculated values
"""
full_kelly = self.calculate_full_kelly(win_rate, avg_win, avg_loss)
# Apply edge strength
adjusted_kelly = full_kelly * edge_strength
# Expected growth rate (approximation)
# G = W * ln(1 + R*f) + (1-W) * ln(1 - f)
if full_kelly > 0 and full_kelly < 1:
win_loss_ratio = avg_win / abs(avg_loss)
growth = (
win_rate * (1 + win_loss_ratio * adjusted_kelly).bit_length() +
(1 - win_rate) * (1 - adjusted_kelly).bit_length()
)
else:
growth = 0.0
return KellyResult(
kelly_fraction=adjusted_kelly,
expected_growth=growth,
volatility_adjusted=adjusted_kelly,
is_valid=adjusted_kelly > 0
)
# Example 2: Position Sizing Formulas
class PositionSizingCalculator:
"""Implements multiple position sizing formulas"""
def __init__(self, account_balance: float, config: dict = None):
self.account_balance = account_balance
self.config = config or {}
def fixed_dollar_sizing(self, dollar_amount: float) -> float:
"""
Fixed dollar position sizing
Returns number of shares/units for fixed dollar investment
"""
return dollar_amount / self.account_balance
def fixed_risk_sizing(
self,
risk_amount: float,
stop_loss_pips: float,
pip_value: float
) -> float:
"""
Size to risk fixed dollar amount
Position Size = Risk Amount / (Stop Loss * Pip Value)
"""
if stop_loss_pips <= 0 or pip_value <= 0:
return 0.0
return risk_amount / (stop_loss_pips * pip_value)
def fixed_fractional_sizing(
self,
risk_fraction: float,
stop_loss_pips: float,
pip_value: float
) -> float:
"""
Fixed fractional position sizing
Position size scales with account balance
Risk Amount = Account Balance * Risk Fraction
"""
risk_amount = self.account_balance * risk_fraction
return self.fixed_risk_sizing(risk_amount, stop_loss_pips, pip_value)
def kelly_sizing(
self,
win_rate: float,
avg_win: float,
avg_loss: float,
kelly_fraction: float = 0.25
) -> float:
"""
Kelly-based position sizing
Returns position size as fraction of account
"""
calculator = KellyCalculator(self.config)
kelly = calculator.calculate_fractional_kelly(
win_rate, avg_win, avg_loss, kelly_fraction
)
# Convert fraction to dollar amount, then to units
risk_amount = self.account_balance * kelly
return risk_amount / self.account_balance
def volatility_adjusted_sizing(
self,
base_position: float,
current_volatility: float,
normalized_volatility: float = 0.02
) -> float:
"""
Adjust position size based on volatility
Higher volatility = smaller positions
Lower volatility = larger positions
Position Adjustment = Base * (Normalized Vol / Current Vol)
"""
if current_volatility <= 0:
return base_position
volatility_ratio = normalized_volatility / current_volatility
return base_position * volatility_ratio
def drawdown_adjusted_sizing(
self,
base_position: float,
account_balance: float,
peak_balance: float,
drawdown_penalty: float = 0.01
) -> float:
"""
Reduce position size as drawdown increases
Args:
base_position: Base position size
account_balance: Current account balance
peak_balance: Highest account balance
drawdown_penalty: Penalty per percentage of drawdown
Returns:
Drawdown-adjusted position size
"""
if peak_balance <= 0:
return base_position
drawdown = (peak_balance - account_balance) / peak_balance
# Reduce position by penalty * drawdown
adjustment = 1 - (drawdown_penalty * drawdown * 100)
return max(0.0, base_position * adjustment)
# Example 3: Volatility-Adjusted Position Sizing
class VolatilityPositionSizer:
"""Position sizing that adapts to market volatility"""
def __init__(self, account_balance: float, config: dict = None):
self.account_balance = account_balance
self.config = config or {}
self.base_volatility = self.config.get('base_volatility', 0.02)
self.max_position_size = self.config.get('max_position_size', 0.5)
def calculate_size(
self,
atr: float,
target_risk_amount: float,
volatility_threshold: float = 0.05
) -> float:
"""
Calculate position size adjusted for ATR volatility
Args:
atr: Average True Range
target_risk_amount: Dollar amount to risk
volatility_threshold: Volatility level that triggers reduction
Returns:
Position size (number of units)
"""
if atr <= 0:
return 0.0
# Calculate normalizing factor
if atr > volatility_threshold:
# High volatility: reduce position
adjustment = volatility_threshold / atr
else:
# Low volatility: can take larger position
adjustment = 1.0
# Base position size
base_size = target_risk_amount / atr
# Apply adjustment
adjusted_size = base_size * adjustment
# Constrain by maximum position size
max_units = (self.account_balance * self.max_position_size) / atr
return min(adjusted_size, max_units)
def calculate_position_value(
self,
symbol_volatility: float,
risk_percent: float,
correlation: float = 1.0
) -> float:
"""
Calculate position value accounting for correlation
Higher correlation between positions requires smaller individual positions
"""
base_position = self.account_balance * risk_percent
# Reduce for correlation (diversification benefit)
correlation_adjustment = 1.0 / max(correlation, 0.1)
adjusted_position = base_position * correlation_adjustment
# Volatility adjustment
vol_adjustment = self.base_volatility / max(symbol_volatility, 0.001)
return adjusted_position * vol_adjustment
# Example 4: Edge-Adjusted Position Sizing
class EdgePositionSizer:
"""Position sizing based on trading signal edge strength"""
def __init__(self, account_balance: float, config: dict = None):
self.account_balance = account_balance
self.config = config or {}
self.min_edge_threshold = self.config.get('min_edge_threshold', 0.05)
self.max_edge_multiplier = self.config.get('max_edge_multiplier', 3.0)
def calculate_edge_size(
self,
base_size: float,
edge_score: float,
confidence: float = 1.0
) -> float:
"""
Adjust position size based on edge score and confidence
Args:
base_size: Base position size without edge adjustment
edge_score: Trading edge strength (-1 to 1, where 1 is strongest)
confidence: Confidence in the edge estimate (0-1)
Returns:
Edge-adjusted position size
"""
# Filter out weak edges
if abs(edge_score) < self.min_edge_threshold:
return 0.0
# Calculate edge multiplier
# edge_score of 0.5 with confidence 1.0 = 2x position
base_multiplier = 1.0 + abs(edge_score) * self.max_edge_multiplier
# Apply confidence adjustment
adjusted_multiplier = base_multiplier * confidence
return base_size * adjusted_multiplier
def calculate_risk_reward_adjusted_size(
self,
base_size: float,
win_rate: float,
rr_ratio: float,
confidence: float = 1.0
) -> float:
"""
Size position based on risk-reward profile
Args:
base_size: Base position size
win_rate: Probability of winning (0-1)
rr_ratio: Risk-reward ratio (reward / risk)
confidence: Confidence in these estimates
Returns:
Risk-reward adjusted position size
"""
if win_rate <= 0 or win_rate >= 1 or rr_ratio <= 0:
return 0.0
# Expected value
expected_value = win_rate - ((1 - win_rate) / rr_ratio)
if expected_value <= 0:
return 0.0
# Position multiplier based on expected value
# EV of 0.1 = 2x position, EV of 0.2 = 3x position, etc.
multiplier = 1.0 + expected_value * 10
return base_size * multiplier * confidence
def get_position_category(self, edge_score: float) -> str:
"""Categorize position by edge strength"""
if abs(edge_score) < 0.05:
return "no_edge"
elif abs(edge_score) < 0.15:
return "weak_edge"
elif abs(edge_score) < 0.30:
return "moderate_edge"
elif abs(edge_score) < 0.50:
return "strong_edge"
else:
return "very_strong_edge"
# Example 5: Dynamic Position Sizer (Combines All Factors)
class DynamicPositionSizer:
"""Comprehensive position sizing combining multiple factors"""
def __init__(self, account_balance: float, config: dict = None):
self.account_balance = account_balance
self.config = config or {}
self.volatility_sizer = VolatilityPositionSizer(account_balance, config)
self.edge_sizer = EdgePositionSizer(account_balance, config)
self.kelly_calculator = KellyCalculator(config)
# Weight factors
self.volatility_weight = self.config.get('volatility_weight', 0.3)
self.edge_weight = self.config.get('edge_weight', 0.4)
self.kelly_weight = self.config.get('kelly_weight', 0.3)
def calculate_position(
self,
atr: float,
target_risk: float,
win_rate: float,
avg_win: float,
avg_loss: float,
edge_score: float,
confidence: float = 1.0,
correlation: float = 1.0
) -> dict:
"""
Calculate comprehensive position size
Returns dict with breakdown of calculations
"""
base_size = target_risk / self.account_balance
# Calculate各 component sizes
volatility_size = self.volatility_sizer.calculate_position_value(
atr, base_size, correlation
)
edge_size = self.edge_sizer.calculate_edge_size(
base_size, edge_score, confidence
)
kelly_size = base_size * self.kelly_calculator.calculate_full_kelly(
win_rate, avg_win, avg_loss
)
# Combine using weights
total_size = (
self.volatility_weight * volatility_size +
self.edge_weight * edge_size +
self.kelly_weight * kelly_size
)
# Apply maximum position constraint
max_position = self.config.get('max_position_size', 0.5)
total_size = min(total_size, max_position)
return {
'position_size': total_size,
'position_value': total_size * self.account_balance,
'risk_amount': total_size * self.account_balance,
'breakdown': {
'volatility_adjusted': volatility_size,
'edge_adjusted': edge_size,
'kelly_sizing': kelly_size
},
'edge_category': self.edge_sizer.get_position_category(edge_score),
'is_valid': total_size > 0
}
```
## Adherence Checklist
Before completing your task, verify:
- [ ] Full and fractional Kelly calculations implemented with edge cases
- [ ] Volatility-adjusted sizing scales positions inversely with volatility
- [ ] Edge-adjusted sizing scales with signal strength and confidence
- [ ] Drawdown-constrained sizing reduces positions as equity declines
- [ ] Early exit prevents sizing when edge or volatility data is unavailable
- [ ] All sizing calculations use intentional, descriptive names
- [ ] Position size clamped to reasonable bounds (0-50% typically)
## Common Mistakes to Avoid
1. **Fixed Lot Sizing**: Using the same position size regardless of account balance or market conditions
2. **Over-Betting Kelly**: Using full Kelly without fraction, leading to high volatility and ruin risk
3. **Ignoring Volatility**: Taking the same position size in high and low volatility environments
4. **No Edge Filtering**: Taking positions on weak signals without reducing position size
5. **Static Drawdown Management**: Not adjusting position size as account drawdown increases
## References
- Kelly, J.L. (1956). "A New Interpretation of Information Rate". Bell System Technical Journal.
- Thorp, E.O. (2017). *The Kelly Capital Growth Investment Criterion*. World Scientific.
- Brown, S. (2013). *The Art of Risk Management*. Wiley.
- Ziemba, W.T. (2010). *The Kelly Capital Growth Investment Criterion: Theory and Practice*. World Scientific.
- Position Sizing - Van Tharp Institute
## Base Directory
file:///home/paulpas/git/ideas/trading_bot/skills/risk-engine
---
---
### Pattern 2: Risk-Managed Trading Logic with Validation
```python
from __future__ import annotations
import logging
from dataclasses import dataclass
from typing import Optional
logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
@dataclass(frozen=True)
class TradeSignal:
"""Immutable trade signal with all required validation constraints."""
symbol: str
side: str # "buy" or "sell"
price: float
quantity: float
confidence: float # 0.0 to 1.0
reason: str
def validate(self) -> bool:
"""Validate that the trade signal meets all business constraints."""
if self.quantity <= 0:
raise ValueError(f"Quantity must be positive, got {self.quantity}")
if self.price <= 0:
raise ValueError(f"Price must be positive, got {self.price}")
if not 0.0 <= self.confidence <= 1.0:
raise ValueError(f"Confidence must be between 0 and 1, got {self.confidence}")
return True
def generate_trade_signal(
symbol: str,
side: str,
price: float,
quantity: float,
confidence: float,
reason: str,
) -> TradeSignal:
"""Generate a validated trade signal with guard clause checks."""
if side not in ("buy", "sell"):
raise ValueError(f"Invalid side '{side}', must be 'buy' or 'sell'")
signal = TradeSignal(
symbol=symbol,
side=side,
price=price,
quantity=quantity,
confidence=confidence,
reason=reason,
)
signal.validate()
logger.info("Trade signal generated: %s %s %.4f @ %.2f (confidence=%.2f)",
symbol, side, quantity, price, confidence)
return signal
def execute_with_risk_check(signal: TradeSignal, max_position_pct: float = 0.05) -> dict:
"""Execute a trade signal after applying risk management checks."""
adjusted_quantity = signal.quantity
if signal.side == "buy" and signal.quantity > max_position_pct:
logger.warning("Position %s exceeds max %.1f%% — capping to %.4f",
signal.symbol, max_position_pct * 100, max_position_pct)
adjusted_quantity = max_position_pct
return {
"symbol": signal.symbol,
"side": signal.side,
"price": signal.price,
"quantity": adjusted_quantity,
"capped": adjusted_quantity < signal.quantity,
"confidence": signal.confidence,
"status": "submitted",
}
```
## Constraints
### MUST DO
- Calculate position sizing using a risk-per-trade percentage of portfolio equity, not a fixed dollar amount
- Implement layered risk controls: stop loss → drawdown limit → portfolio-level circuit breaker → kill switch
- Compute VaR using historical simulation with at least 1 year of data and multiple confidence levels (95%, 99%)
- Track correlation matrices across all open positions and flag portfolios where top-3 correlations exceed 0.8
- Log all risk events (stop hits, drawdown warnings, kill switches) with full context including P&L, position state, and market conditions
### MUST NOT DO
- Do not use a stop loss as the sole risk control — always layer with portfolio-level limits
- Avoid recalculating position sizes during active drawdown without regime analysis — volatility is likely elevated
- Never allow a single position to exceed 5% of portfolio equity regardless of signal strength or confidence score
- Do not backtest risk metrics without including slippage, commissions, and partial fills in the simulation
- Avoid using standard deviation alone for VaR when returns show fat tails — use historical simulation or EVT
## Live References
> Authoritative documentation links for this skill's domain. The model follows markdown links at load time to resolve external references and inline content.
- [Position Sizing Fundamentals](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/position-sizing.asp)
- [Kelly Criterion for Position Sizing](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/07/kelly-criterion.asp)
- [Fixed Fractional Position Sizing](https://docs.quantconnect.com/tutorials/algorithms)
- [Volatility-Adjusted Position Sizing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Average_true_range)
- [Risk-Based Portfolio Sizing](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/var.asp)
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