Penalty Check

---
name: penalty-check
description: >
  Google penalty and manual action detection. Activates when discussing
  traffic drops, penalties, manual actions, algorithm updates, deindexation,
  ranking losses, or suspicious pattern detection. Run this EARLY — a confirmed
  penalty invalidates all other optimization work until resolved.
  Phase 20. Output: {AUDIT_DIR}/penalty-findings.md
---

# Penalty & Manual Action Check — Phase 20

## Executive Summary

A Google penalty is a multiplier against zero — no amount of on-page optimization, content creation, or link building can overcome an active manual action or severe algorithmic penalty. Run this phase FIRST in Wave 1. In 2025, penalties have expanded beyond traditional link spam: Google's Scaled Content Abuse policy (March 2024) specifically targets bulk AI-generated pages without human editorial oversight, and Site Reputation Abuse (May 2024) penalizes sites hosting low-quality third-party content for ranking purposes. Additionally, algorithmic penalties from the Helpful Content System (HCS, integrated March 2024) are not marked in GSC — they require traffic pattern analysis correlated against known update dates. Penalty status also directly affects AI visibility: penalized or low-trust domains are excluded from Google AI Overviews and are rarely cited by ChatGPT or Perplexity.

**2025 penalty benchmarks:**
- Manual action recovery: 2–8 weeks after reinclusion request (Google states 2–4 weeks; reality: 4–8 weeks)
- Algorithmic recovery: must wait for next Core Update to take effect — typically 3–6 month cycles
- HCS recovery: documented cases show 3–12 months after removing unhelpful content
- Disavow threshold (2024 guidance): Google auto-ignores most low-quality links — only disavow if confirmed manual action or +500% spam spike
- TF:CF ratio <0.3 = high unnatural link risk; brand anchors should be 40–60% of link profile
- AI Overviews: sites with active penalties or domain trust <30 DA rarely appear in AIO citations

**Numbered Action Plan:**

### Immediate (Week 1)
1. **Check GSC Manual Actions** — GSC → Security & Manual Actions → Manual Actions. If any present: stop all other optimization, begin recovery immediately. Effort: 5 min. Priority: 25 (5×5).
2. **Run `site:[domain]` search** — if result count is <50% of sitemap count, immediate deindexation flag. Compare month-over-month if GSC unavailable. Effort: 5 min. Priority: 20.
3. **Cross-reference traffic drop dates with algorithm update timeline** — use Semrush Sensor or Algoroo to identify if drops align with known updates (Mar 2024 Core, Aug 2024 Core, Mar 2025 Core). Effort: 15 min.
4. **Check link profile health via Majestic** — TF:CF ratio <0.3 + exact-match anchors >10% = automatic disavow candidate. Run free check at Majestic.com. Effort: 20 min. Priority: 20 (4×5).
5. **Check competitor clean profiles** — compare client's organic traffic trend (SimilarWeb) against 2–3 confirmed-clean competitors in same niche to establish "what healthy looks like." Effort: 15 min.

### Short-Term (Week 1–2)
6. **Audit thin/duplicate content** — run Screaming Frog crawl (free up to 500 pages) → filter for pages <300 words → flag for noindex or expansion. Any pages with identical titles/metas = duplicate content risk. Effort: 30 min crawl + 1 hr analysis.
7. **Run technical deception check** — compare Googlebot UA vs. user UA with curl commands. Check for redirect chains. Search `"[business name]" -site:[domain]` for scraped copies. Effort: 20 min.
8. **Audit scaled content abuse risk** — if site has >50 programmatic pages (location × service combinations) with near-identical content: flag immediately. Google's March 2024 Spam Update specifically targets this pattern. Effort: 30 min.
9. **Submit disavow file if needed** — only if manual action confirmed OR TF:CF <0.3 with +500% referring domain spike. Use domain: prefix format. Effort: 1–2 hrs to build + 15 min to submit.
10. **Document and prioritize recovery roadmap** — if penalty confirmed: write recovery plan with realistic timelines (manual action: 4–8 weeks; algorithmic: 3–6 months; HCS: 3–12 months). Share with client before any other optimization work. Effort: 1 hr.

## Why Run First (Wave 1)

A penalty makes 90% of other audit findings irrelevant until resolved.
Check penalty status before deep-diving into optimization.

---

## Step 1: Read Project Context

Read `{AUDIT_DIR}/intake-data.md` for business name, URL, and project paths.
Read `{AUDIT_DIR}/competitor-profiles.md` for competitor traffic benchmarks (clean sites for comparison).

---

## Step 2: Manual Actions Check

### GSC Manual Actions (If Access Available)
- Navigate: GSC → Security & Manual Actions → Manual Actions
- Document any manual actions: type, scope (site-wide / partial), date applied
- Check if reinclusion request ever submitted

**Tools:** Google Search Console (free), Ahrefs Site Audit → Manual Actions alerts (paid)

### Manual Action Types — 2025 Reference Table
| Type | What It Means | Severity | Avg Recovery Time |
|------|--------------|---------|-------------------|
| Unnatural links to your site | Toxic backlink profile | 🔴 Critical | 3–6 months after disavow |
| Unnatural links from your site | Selling/exchanging links | 🔴 Critical | 2–4 months after cleanup |
| Thin content with little or no added value | Thin/duplicate content at scale | 🔴 Critical | 1–3 months after improvement |
| Cloaking / sneaky redirects | Showing different content to Google vs. users | 🔴 Critical | 1–2 months after fix |
| Pure spam | Site flagged as spam network | 🔴 Critical | 6–12 months (or never) |
| User-generated spam | UGC sections used by spammers | 🟠 High | 1–2 months |
| Structured data issue | Schema spam or misleading markup | 🟠 High | 2–4 weeks |
| AMP content mismatch | Different content in AMP vs. canonical | 🟡 Medium | 2–4 weeks |
| Site reputation abuse | Hosting low-quality 3rd-party content for ranking | 🔴 Critical | 3–6 months (added May 2024) |
| Scaled content abuse | Mass AI-generated or low-value content | 🔴 Critical | 3–6 months (2024+) |

---

## Step 3: Algorithm Penalty Detection

Even without GSC access, detect algorithmic penalties via traffic pattern analysis.

### Tools for Traffic Pattern Analysis
- **Semrush Sensor** — tracks daily ranking volatility (free tier available)
- **Algoroo** — algorithm update correlation tool (free)
- **MozCast** — SERP turbulence tracker (free)
- **SimilarWeb** — estimated organic traffic trend (freemium)
- **Wayback Machine** — historical site snapshots to detect major content changes

### 2025 Algorithm Update Timeline (Cross-Reference Traffic Drops)
| Update | Date | What It Targets |
|--------|------|----------------|
| Helpful Content System | Sep 2023, Mar 2024 | Unhelpful, SEO-first content |
| Core Update | Mar 2024 | Broad quality assessment — hit many small sites |
| Spam Update | Mar 2024, Jun 2024 | Link spam, scaled content abuse, expired domain abuse |
| Site Reputation Abuse | May 2024 | Hosting 3rd-party low-quality content for ranking |
| Core Update | Aug 2024 | Quality, EEAT, unhelpful content |
| Core Update | Nov 2024 | Continued quality signals, authority |
| Core Update | Mar 2025 | AI-generated content abuse, low-value content at scale |
| AI Overview impact | 2024–2025 ongoing | Reduces organic CTR for featured results |
| Spam Update | Jun 2025 | Evolved link spam detection |

### Traffic Pattern Red Flags
| Pattern | Likely Cause | Severity |
|---------|-------------|---------|
| Sudden 30%+ drop on specific date | Algorithmic penalty | 🔴 Critical |
| Gradual 50%+ decline over 6–12 months | Quality/HCU issue | 🟠 High |
| Drop in branded traffic only | Trust/reputation issue | 🟠 High |
| Specific page type affected (e.g., all blog posts) | Content quality issue | 🟡 Medium |
| Specific keyword category affected | Topical relevance issue | 🟡 Medium |
| Mobile traffic drops more than desktop | Mobile usability issue | 🟡 Medium |

---

## Step 4: Unnatural Link Profile Analysis

### Tools
- **Ahrefs** → Site Explorer → Backlinks → filter: Dofollow, new links velocity
- **Google Search Console** → Links → Top linking sites + anchor text distribution
- **Semrush** → Backlink Audit → Toxic Score breakdown
- **Majestic** → Trust Flow vs. Citation Flow ratio (TF/CF < 0.3 = risk)

### Unnatural Link Red Flags (Specific Thresholds)
| Signal | Red Flag Threshold | Tool to Check |
|--------|-------------------|--------------|
| Exact-match commercial anchors | >10% of link profile | Ahrefs anchor report |
| Referring domains from .ru/.cn spam | >5% of RD count | Ahrefs + GSC |
| Links from same C-class IPs | >20 links from same /24 subnet | Majestic |
| Trust Flow < Citation Flow (TF:CF) | Ratio < 0.3 | Majestic |
| Sudden referring domain spike | +500% in 30 days then crash | Ahrefs history |
| Footer/sitewide links from unrelated sites | Any present | Ahrefs link type filter |
| PBN or link farm patterns | DA <10 + no real content | Ahrefs + manual check |

### Disavow File Status
- Locate: GSC → Links → Disavow
- Has a disavow file been submitted? When was it last updated?
- Are new toxic links appearing AFTER the disavow submission?

---

## Step 5: Thin/Duplicate Content Check

### Tools
- **Screaming Frog SEO Spider** — crawl for word counts, duplicate titles/metas, thin pages
- **Siteliner** — duplicate content % across site (free up to 250 pages)
- **Google Search Console** → Coverage → Excluded pages (indexation issues)
- **Copyscape** — detect scraped/plagiarised content (paid)
- **site_crawler.py** → reads `{DATA_DIR}/crawl/` for word count data per page

### Thin Content Thresholds
| Content Type | Minimum Word Count | Red Flag |
|-------------|-------------------|---------|
| Homepage | 600+ words | <400 words |
| Service page | 800+ words | <500 words |
| Location page | 600+ words | <400 words |
| Blog post | 1,200+ words | <600 words |
| Product page | 400+ words | <200 words |

### Scaled Content Abuse Detection (2024–2025 Critical)
- Large volumes of AI-generated pages with no human editorial oversight
- Programmatic pages targeting location × service variations with near-identical content
- Content that answers questions but provides no unique experience, expertise, or data
- Pages with high bounce rate + zero dwell time + no engagement signals

---

## Step 6: Technical Deception Check

```bash
# Googlebot vs. user-agent comparison
curl -A "Googlebot" https://domain.com    # Googlebot view
curl https://domain.com                    # User view
# Compare: different content = cloaking risk

# Redirect chain check
curl -IL https://domain.com

# Hidden text detection (in browser console)
document.querySelectorAll('[style*="display:none"], [style*="visibility:hidden"]')
```

### Search Operator Verification
```
site:domain.com                     → Total indexed pages (flag if >2× sitemap count)
site:domain.com -www                → www/non-www duplicate check
site:domain.com inurl:?             → Parameterized duplicate pages being indexed
"[business name]" -site:domain.com → Scraped copies of content
cache:domain.com                    → Last crawl date and cached content
domain.com spam                     → External spam reports
domain.com penalized                → Community penalty reports
```

---

## Step 7: Competitor Clean Profile Benchmark

Compare the target site's signals against confirmed-clean competitor sites. This establishes what a healthy local business looks like in this niche.

**Tools:** SimilarWeb (traffic trends), Ahrefs (referring domains, anchor distribution), Majestic (TF:CF), Screaming Frog (indexed count)

| Signal | Client | Top Competitor | 2nd Competitor | Healthy Benchmark |
|--------|--------|----------------|----------------|-------------------|
| Organic traffic trend (6mo) | ±% | ±% | ±% | Stable or growing |
| Referring domains (total) | # | # | # | Industry average |
| TF:CF ratio | ratio | ratio | ratio | ≥0.5 healthy; <0.3 = toxic risk |
| Avg anchor text: branded | % | % | % | 50–60% |
| Avg anchor text: exact match | % | % | % | <10% |
| Indexed pages vs. sitemap | ratio | ratio | ratio | Within 20% |
| Pages <300 words | % | % | % | <5% of crawled |
| E-E-A-T signals (author bios) | Yes/No | Yes/No | Yes/No | Present on all content |
| INP Core Web Vital | ms | ms | ms | <200ms Good (replaced FID March 2024) |
| Manual actions | Yes/No | Yes/No | Yes/No | None |
| GSC coverage errors | # | n/a | n/a | <1% of indexed |

**Confirm competitor is "clean"** before using as benchmark: stable organic traffic, ranks for branded name, site: count ≈ sitemap count.

---

## Step 8: AI Visibility Impact of Penalties (2025)

A Google algorithmic penalty has compounding effects beyond organic search:
- **AI Overview exclusion** — Penalized or low-trust sites are rarely cited in AI Overviews
- **Knowledge Graph suppression** — Spam signals reduce entity trust score
- **Brand SERP damage** — Negative SERP features appear for branded queries
- **AI assistant citations** — ChatGPT, Perplexity, Gemini avoid citing penalized or low-trust domains

Check: Search `[business name] site:domain.com` in AI Overviews / Perplexity / ChatGPT. Is the site referenced?

---

## Step 9: Recovery Roadmap (If Penalty Confirmed)

### Manual Action Recovery (ordered by priority)
1. **Identify exact violation** — Read GSC manual action notice verbatim — Effort: 30 min
2. **Link cleanup** — Contact webmasters to remove toxic links (email each) — Effort: 2–5 hrs
3. **Create disavow file** — List all remaining toxic domains/URLs — Effort: 1–2 hrs
4. **Submit disavow** — Upload to GSC Disavow Tool (use domain: prefix) — Effort: 15 min
5. **Fix underlying content violations** — Rewrite thin pages (800+ words each) — Effort: 2–4 hrs per page
6. **Submit reinclusion request** — After ALL violations resolved — Effort: 30 min — Wait: 2–8 weeks
7. **Monitor GSC weekly** — Track manual action status + coverage changes — Effort: 30 min/week

### Algorithmic Recovery (Helpful Content / Core Updates)
1. **Audit worst-performing pages** (Screaming Frog + GSC performance data) — Effort: 2 hrs
2. **Prune or consolidate thin content** — Noindex or 301 redirect to better page — Effort: 1 hr per page
3. **Improve E-E-A-T signals** — Author bios, original data, expert quotes — Effort: 4–8 hrs per page
4. **Wait for next core update** — Google only re-evaluates during Core Updates (quarterly) — Timeline: 3–6 months
5. **Monitor with Semrush Sensor** — Track volatility correlation to recovery — Effort: 15 min/week

---

## Step 10: Scoring

| Category | Score Contribution | Weight |
|----------|------------------|--------|
| No manual actions present | 25 pts | Critical |
| No algorithmic correlation to traffic drop | 20 pts | High |
| Clean link profile (TF:CF >0.3, <10% exact-match) | 20 pts | High |
| No thin/duplicate content at scale | 20 pts | High |
| No technical deception signals | 15 pts | Medium |

**Score Interpretation:**
| Score | Status | Interpretation |
|-------|--------|---------------|
| 90–100 | ✅ Clean | No penalty signals — proceed with full audit |
| 70–89 | ⚠️ Caution | Risk factors present — monitor closely |
| 50–69 | 🟠 Risk | Likely algorithmic issues — investigate and improve |
| 30–49 | 🔴 High Risk | Probable unresolved penalty — prioritize recovery |
| <30 | ❌ Critical | Confirmed penalty — halt other phases until resolved |

**Priority Matrix:**
| Action | Impact (1–5) | Feasibility (1–5) | Priority Score |
|--------|-------------|-------------------|----------------|
| Submit disavow file | 5 | 4 | 20 |
| Remove/noindex thin pages | 4 | 4 | 16 |
| Improve E-E-A-T on key pages | 5 | 3 | 15 |
| Submit reinclusion request | 5 | 5 | 25 |
| Fix canonical / redirect issues | 4 | 4 | 16 |

---

## Output Format

Write to `{AUDIT_DIR}/penalty-findings.md` with this structure:

```yaml
---
skill: audit/penalty-check
phase: 20
date: [YYYY-MM-DD]
business: [Business Name]
url: [URL]
score: [X/100]
status: [clean|caution|risk|critical]
---
```

```
AUDIT PHASE: Penalty Check | ID: PENALTY-001 | Phase: 20
BUSINESS: [Name] | URL: [URL] | DATE: [Date]
SCORE: X/100 | STATUS: ✅ Clean / ⚠️ Caution / 🔴 Risk / ❌ Critical

MANUAL ACTIONS: None / [type, scope, date]
ALGORITHMIC CORRELATION: None / [update name, date, traffic % drop]

PENALTY TYPE:         [if applicable]
SCOPE:               Site-wide / Partial
LIKELY CAUSE:        [link spam / thin content / cloaking / scaled content]
RECOVERY STATUS:     Not Started / In Progress / Resolved

CRITICAL ISSUES:
🔴 [issue with evidence, tool that found it, steps to fix]

HIGH PRIORITY:
🟠 [issue with evidence and priority score: Impact × Feasibility]

COMPETITOR COMPARISON:
| Signal             | Client | Comp 1 | Comp 2 | Benchmark |
|--------------------|--------|--------|--------|-----------|
| Organic trend 6mo  |        |        |        | Growing   |
| Exact-match anchors|  %     |  %     |  %     | <10%      |
| Indexed pages      |        |        |        | ~sitemap  |

RECOVERY ROADMAP (if penalty confirmed):
1. [Immediate action] — Effort: [X hrs] — Timeline: [X weeks] — Impact: [High/Med]
2. [action] — Effort: — Timeline: — Impact:
3. [action]

AI VISIBILITY IMPACT: [Is site appearing in AI Overviews / Perplexity / ChatGPT?]
```

---

## Handoff

Write output to `{AUDIT_DIR}/penalty-findings.md`.

**If penalty confirmed:** Flag immediately — all other phases are secondary until resolved. Include recovery roadmap with realistic timelines.

**If clean:** Note clean status — proceed with remaining phases. Include any mild risk factors as preventive actions.

**Key consumers:** `audit/technical-seo` (links to technical issues), `strategy/backlink-audit` (link profile detail), `output/report-generation` (master report integration).

---

## Penalty Quick Reference

### Penalty Type vs. Recovery Timeline Table

| Penalty Type | Detection Method | Avg Recovery | Required Action | Priority |
|-------------|-----------------|-------------|----------------|---------|
| Manual: Unnatural links (inbound) | GSC Manual Actions | 3–6 months after disavow | Disavow file + reinclusion request | 25 (5×5) |
| Manual: Thin content | GSC Manual Actions | 1–3 months after rewrite | Rewrite all flagged pages to 800+ words | 25 (5×5) |
| Manual: Site reputation abuse | GSC Manual Actions | 3–6 months | Remove/noindex all 3rd-party low-quality content | 25 (5×5) |
| Algorithmic: HCS (Helpful Content) | Traffic drop correlated to HCU dates | 3–12 months | Remove/improve unhelpful content; improve E-E-A-T | 20 (5×4) |
| Algorithmic: Core Update | Traffic drop at Core Update date | 3–6 months (next Core Update) | Improve content quality, topical depth, E-E-A-T | 20 (5×4) |
| Algorithmic: Scaled content abuse | Traffic drop + many thin programmatic pages | 3–6 months | Consolidate/delete thin pages; add unique content | 20 (5×4) |
| Algorithmic: Spam (links) | TF:CF <0.3 + exact-match anchors >10% | 2–4 months | Build disavow file; earn natural links | 20 (4×5) |

### Rank-Specific Competitor Benchmark Table

Compare client vs. top-3 competitors at specific rank positions:

| Metric | Client | #1 Ranked Competitor | #2 Ranked Competitor | #3 Ranked Competitor | Healthy Benchmark |
|--------|--------|---------------------|---------------------|---------------------|------------------|
| Manual actions | Y/N | Y/N | Y/N | Y/N | None |
| Organic traffic trend (6mo) | ↑/↓ % | ↑/↓ % | ↑/↓ % | ↑/↓ % | Stable or ↑ |
| TF:CF ratio (Majestic) | ratio | ratio | ratio | ratio | ≥0.5 |
| Exact-match anchors | % | % | % | % | <10% |
| Indexed pages vs. sitemap | ratio | n/a | n/a | n/a | Within 20% |
| GBP rating (trust proxy) | stars | stars | stars | stars | ≥4.0 |
| INP (Core Web Vital) | ms | ms | ms | ms | <200ms Good |
| E-E-A-T: expert bylines | Y/N | Y/N | Y/N | Y/N | Present on all |