Assumption Excavation

---
name: assumption-excavation
description: Systematic extraction, challenge, and sensitivity analysis of assumptions underlying a decision to identify load-bearing beliefs.
execution: tactic
used-by: steel-manning
---

# Assumption Excavation

A three-phase tactic that surfaces hidden assumptions, challenges each one adversarially, and maps which assumptions are load-bearing for the conclusion. Decisions often rest on unstated beliefs — this tactic makes them explicit and tests their strength.

## Stages

1. **Assumption Extraction** — Systematically surface all assumptions underlying the decision, with confidence levels
2. **Assumption Challenge** — For each assumption, construct the strongest counter-argument and identify alternatives
3. **Conclusion Sensitivity** — Map which assumptions, if wrong, would change the conclusion

## Available SOPs

| SOP | Phase | Purpose |
|-----|-------|---------|
| assumption-extraction | Extract | Surface hidden assumptions with confidence |
| assumption-challenge | Challenge | Attack each assumption adversarially |
| conclusion-sensitivity | Sensitivity | Map load-bearing assumptions |

## Execution Guidance

- Extract minimum 5 assumptions per decision
- Challenge ALL assumptions, not just obvious ones
- Confidence levels: HIGH (>80%), MEDIUM (50-80%), LOW (<50%)
- Critical assumption = conclusion changes if assumption is wrong
- Focus mitigation efforts on critical + low-confidence assumptions

## Minimum Yield

- >= 5 assumptions extracted with confidence levels
- Challenge argument for each assumption
- Alternative assumption for each (what if the opposite is true?)
- Sensitivity map showing which assumptions are critical
- List of critical assumptions requiring mitigation