Scenario 01

---
name: draft-industry-summary-s01
task_id: corporate-ma/draft-industry-summary/scenario-01
description: Guides preparation of an industry summary and market analysis memo for an acquisition evaluation by cross-checking company-provided market data against independent sources, identifying potential base-year selection bias in growth calculations, quantifying regulatory and reimbursement headwinds at a category level, and adjusting precedent transaction multiples for period-specific outliers.
activates_for: [planner, solver, checker]
---

# Skill: Draft Industry Summary Memo for Diagnostics Acquisition Evaluation

## 1. Subject-matter triage
- Treat the assignment as a cross-source diligence memo, not a standalone market overview.
- Separate the memo into: market definition, demand drivers, regulatory/reimbursement environment, competitive positioning, and valuation implications.
- Use the five documents as a closed source set first; then reconcile them against independent industry materials where the task calls for cross-checking.
- If the source set contains multiple markets, modalities, geographies, or time periods, enumerate them up front and analyze each separately before drawing a combined conclusion.

## 2. Failure modes the skill is correcting
- Summarizing the diagnostics market at a high level without testing whether the company’s growth story depends on one narrow segment, reimbursement regime, or regulatory pathway.
- Accepting seller-side market size, share, or growth claims without checking the base period, methodology, or whether a trough year was used to make growth appear stronger.
- Repeating precedent transaction medians without screening for atypical vintages, frothy periods, or outlier multiples that distort the valuation read-through.
- Describing reimbursement or certification changes qualitatively while omitting the likely revenue, margin, timing, and compliance burden.
- Treating pipeline products as near-term commercial drivers without checking development stage, regulatory path, or commercialization bottlenecks.
- Missing concentration risk in customers, distributors, or channels where renewal timing coincides with the transaction timeline.
- Collapsing conflicting source statements into a single narrative instead of showing the discrepancy, source preference, and consequence for diligence.

## 3. Legal frameworks / domain conventions that apply
- Market sizing and growth: state the market definition, base year, and growth method used by each source; if the seller’s base year is atypical, recompute growth on a normalized comparison period and explain the delta.
- Market share cross-check: compare company-reported share to independent research; identify which source is more credible based on methodology, date, and scope.
- Public reimbursement changes: for each payer or rate change, translate the policy shift into annual revenue exposure and downstream earnings impact, including any offsetting cost actions.
- Laboratory-developed test oversight: distinguish between immediate compliance work and longer-run regulatory burden; do not overstate timing of enforcement or adoption.
- Higher-risk diagnostic certification regimes: where certification or approval capacity can constrain launch timing, assess backlog, sequencing, and delay risk.
- Customer concentration and renewal: where revenue is concentrated and a key relationship is up for renewal during the deal window, treat the renewal as a material business risk and quantify exposed revenue.
- Pipeline commercialization: distinguish research, validation, regulatory submission, approval, launch readiness, and scaled adoption; avoid language that implies commercialization before the evidence supports it.
- Precedent transaction benchmarking: screen out transactions from atypical periods or with extraordinary strategic premiums; consider a later-period or trimmed benchmark if it better reflects the current market.
- Controlling authority: when the memo states a legal or regulatory proposition, name the governing statute, regulation, rule, or recognized authority supporting it.
- Diagnostic industry convention: for each claim, identify the source, the scope of the claim, and the business consequence if the claim proves optimistic.

## 4. Analytical scaffolds
- Build a source-by-source comparison table for each core claim: market size, growth rate, share, reimbursement, regulatory burden, pipeline status, and precedent multiple.
- For each market claim, ask: what exactly is being measured, what geography and channel are included, what year is the base, and what would change if a normalized base were used?
- For each regulatory or reimbursement issue, ask: what policy changed, which product lines are affected, how much revenue is exposed, what margin offset is plausible, and over what timeline the effect should be recognized?
- For each concentration issue, identify the revenue percentage tied to the relevant customer, distributor, or channel, note whether a renewal or repricing event falls inside the transaction horizon, and state the consequence if the relationship is lost or delayed.
- For each pipeline asset, identify its stage and gating items, then separate probable near-term revenue from speculative long-term opportunity.
- For each precedent transaction, identify whether the deal was struck in a distorted period, then compare the stated central tendency to a more normalized alternative.
- When the source set contains competing numbers, preserve both figures, explain the methodology gap, and state the practical diligence takeaway instead of forcing a false precision.
- When evidence is sparse, say so explicitly and frame the issue as an underwriting uncertainty rather than an unverified conclusion.

## 5. Vertical / structural / temporal relationships
- If growth is concentrated in a single segment, explain whether that segment is cyclical, reimbursed, regulated, or dependent on installed-base replacement.
- If a reimbursement change or certification constraint affects a launch window, place the effect on a timeline that distinguishes immediate disruption from delayed commercialization.
- If customer renewal risk overlaps with integration or closing timing, explain the transaction-specific exposure rather than only the steady-state commercial risk.
- If precedent transactions span different market regimes, separate the vintages and explain which set best matches the target’s current operating environment.
- If the target’s internal documents use one market definition and the independent source uses another, reconcile the definitions before comparing magnitude or growth.

## 6. Output structure conventions
- Write a concise but comprehensive industry summary memo in conventional deal-team form.
- Open with a short executive takeaway that states the investment implication, not just the market description.
- Organize the body by topic: market overview, demand and growth drivers, competitive position, regulatory and reimbursement landscape, concentration and pipeline risks, and valuation implications.
- Include a market data comparison table showing company-provided figure, independent figure, source/date, and assessment.
- Include a revenue projection comparison table where internal company materials diverge from the source set.
- Include a regulatory headwind section that quantifies exposure, timing, and likely earnings effect where possible.
- Include a valuation implications section that explains how precedent transactions should be adjusted for period-specific outliers.
- For every legal or regulatory proposition, cite the governing authority by name and section or part; do not leave the proposition unsupported.
- End with a Recommended Actions block that uses imperative verbs, assigns each action to a relevant role from the source set, and ties timing to the diligence or transaction milestone.
- Use industry-conventional headings and subheadings; do not mirror any internal rubric or checklist language.
- Keep the memo analytical rather than promotional; where the sources conflict, show the conflict and state the diligence consequence.