Disclosure Calculus

---
name: disclosure-calculus
description: Guide potential whistleblowers through a structured decision-making framework to assess whether disclosure is warranted and how to proceed responsibly.
license: MIT
metadata:
  version: 1.0.3840
  author: sethmblack
repository: https://github.com/sethmblack/paks-skills
keywords:
- disclosure-calculus
- escalation
- storytelling
- writing
---

# Disclosure Calculus

Guide potential whistleblowers through a structured decision-making framework to assess whether disclosure is warranted and how to proceed responsibly.

---

## When to Use

- Considering whether to report wrongdoing you've witnessed
- User says "Should I disclose this?" or "Is whistleblowing appropriate here?"
- Have evidence of wrongdoing but unsure whether to act
- Need to assess personal risk versus public benefit
- Deciding between internal channels, external reporting, or public disclosure

---

## Inputs

| Input | Required | Description |
|-------|----------|-------------|
| situation | Yes | Description of the wrongdoing or information |
| evidence | No | What documentation exists |
| internal_attempts | No | Whether internal channels have been tried |
| personal_circumstances | No | Risk factors in your situation |

---

## The Ellsberg Framework

Daniel Ellsberg spent years deciding whether to release the Pentagon Papers. His framework for that decision—developed through agonizing deliberation—provides structure for anyone facing similar choices.

**The core question:** "What is worth the consequences of disclosure?"

---

## The Six-Step Calculus

### Step 1: Credibility Assessment

Is this information credible? Would a reasonable person believe it?

**Questions:**
- Do I have first-hand knowledge or second-hand reports?
- Is there documentary evidence or just my word?
- Could the information be fabricated, mistaken, or taken out of context?
- Would this hold up to scrutiny?

**Ellsberg's principle:** Documents speak louder than claims. The Pentagon Papers worked because they were the government's own records, not opinions.

**If the evidence is weak:** Consider whether disclosure would damage your credibility for future, more substantive revelations.

### Step 2: Public Interest Analysis

Does the public have a right to know this? Does disclosure serve democratic accountability?

**Questions:**
- What harm is being done by this information remaining secret?
- Who benefits from secrecy? Who is harmed?
- Would an informed public make different decisions if they knew?
- Is this information necessary for democratic self-governance?

**Red flags that this might NOT be public interest:**
- Personal grievance dressed as principle
- Information that's embarrassing but not actually harmful
- Competitive intelligence that's not wrongdoing
- Private matters that don't affect the public

**Green flags for genuine public interest:**
- Life and safety at stake
- Systemic deception of the public
- Illegal activity being concealed
- Democratic accountability being undermined

### Step 3: Internal Channel Evaluation

Have legitimate internal channels been tried? Is there good faith effort to address this within the system?

**Questions:**
- What internal reporting mechanisms exist?
- Have I used them? If not, why not?
- What was the result of internal reporting?
- Is there evidence that internal channels are captured or ineffective?
- Have others tried and failed through internal channels?

**Ellsberg's experience:** He tried to get the Pentagon Papers to senators who could act on them within the system. Only when those channels failed did he go to the press.

**Why this matters:** Internal channels exhaust legitimate alternatives and demonstrate good faith. If you skip them, opponents will ask why.

### Step 4: Risk Assessment

What are the personal consequences of disclosure? Can you accept them?

**Categories of risk:**

**Legal risks:**
- Criminal prosecution
- Civil liability
- Regulatory action

**Professional risks:**
- Termination
- Blacklisting
- Career damage
- Professional licensing consequences

**Personal risks:**
- Financial hardship
- Relationship strain
- Psychological toll
- Physical safety (in extreme cases)

**Questions:**
- What laws might I be violating?
- What legal protections might apply? (Whistleblower statutes, public interest defense)
- Can I afford legal representation?
- Can I afford to lose my job?
- How will my family be affected?
- Am I prepared for the stress and duration of this fight?

**Ellsberg's warning:** He fully expected to spend the rest of his life in prison. He decided it was worth it. You need to make that calculation consciously.

### Step 5: Timing Considerations

When is the right moment for disclosure?

**Questions:**
- Is the harm ongoing? Does delay cause additional damage?
- Are there upcoming events that make this more relevant?
- Is someone else likely to disclose first?
- Is there an election, decision, or deadline this information should inform?
- Do I need more time to prepare?

**Principles:**
- If harm is ongoing, sooner is usually better
- If you're not ready, a botched disclosure may be worse than waiting
- Timing to electoral cycles is legitimate—information should inform votes

### Step 6: Method Selection

How should disclosure happen?

**Options:**

**Internal escalation:**
- Up the chain within the organization
- To board, oversight committee, inspector general
- Preserves relationships, may be ignored

**Regulatory/Legal channels:**
- Report to relevant government agency
- Work with prosecutors
- More protection, less control over outcome

**Legislative disclosure:**
- Report to elected officials or their staff
- Congressional testimony (may provide immunity)
- Political dynamics may help or hurt

**Media disclosure:**
- Work with journalists
- Public becomes aware immediately
- Highest impact, highest risk, least control

**Considerations:**
- What outcome do you want?
- How much control do you need over the narrative?
- What legal protections does each method offer?
- Who can you trust?

---

## Workflow

### Step 1: Gather and Review Inputs

Collect all relevant information:
- Review the provided data and context
- Identify key parameters and constraints
- Clarify any ambiguities or missing information
- Establish success criteria

### Step 2: Analyze the Situation

Perform systematic analysis:
- Identify patterns and relationships
- Evaluate against established frameworks
- Consider multiple perspectives
- Document key findings

### Step 3: Generate Recommendations

Create actionable outputs:
- Synthesize insights from analysis
- Prioritize recommendations by impact
- Ensure recommendations are specific and measurable
- Consider implementation feasibility

## Output Format

```markdown
## Disclosure Calculus: [Situation Summary]

### Step 1: Credibility Assessment
- **Evidence type:** [First-hand/documentary/hearsay]
- **Documentation:** [What exists]
- **Vulnerabilities:** [How it could be challenged]
- **Assessment:** [Strong/Moderate/Weak]

### Step 2: Public Interest Analysis
- **Harm from secrecy:** [What damage continues if hidden]
- **Democratic relevance:** [Why public needs to know]
- **Red flags:** [Any personal grievance masking as principle?]
- **Assessment:** [Clear public interest/Ambiguous/Questionable]

### Step 3: Internal Channel Evaluation
- **Channels tried:** [What's been attempted]
- **Results:** [What happened]
- **Channels remaining:** [What hasn't been tried]
- **Assessment:** [Exhausted/In progress/Not yet attempted]

### Step 4: Risk Assessment
| Risk Category | Specific Risks | Severity | Acceptable? |
|---------------|----------------|----------|-------------|
| Legal | [Details] | [High/Med/Low] | [Yes/No/Uncertain] |
| Professional | [Details] | [High/Med/Low] | [Yes/No/Uncertain] |
| Personal | [Details] | [High/Med/Low] | [Yes/No/Uncertain] |

### Step 5: Timing Analysis
- **Urgency:** [Is harm ongoing?]
- **Relevant events:** [Elections, decisions, deadlines]
- **Readiness:** [Are you prepared?]
- **Recommendation:** [Now/Wait/Prepare then act]

### Step 6: Method Recommendation
- **Recommended channel:** [Internal/Regulatory/Legislative/Media]
- **Reasoning:** [Why this method]
- **Backup plan:** [If first channel fails]

### Overall Assessment
- **Should you disclose?** [Yes/No/Not yet]
- **Key conditions:** [What would change the answer]
- **Next steps:** [Immediate actions to take]

### Warnings
[What could go wrong even if you do everything right]
```

---

## Constraints

- This framework is not legal advice—consult an attorney
- The calculus must be honest—don't use it to justify a decision already made
- Disclosure cannot be undone—once it's out, it's out
- This is not for leaking for personal benefit or revenge
- Not every wrongdoing warrants personal sacrifice—it's okay to decide the cost is too high

---

## Outputs

**Primary Output:** A structured analysis document that identifies and articulates patterns, insights, and actionable recommendations based on the input data.

**Format:**
```markdown
## Analysis: [Topic]

### Key Findings
- [Finding 1]
- [Finding 2]
- [Finding 3]

### Recommendations
1. [Action 1]
2. [Action 2]
3. [Action 3]
```

**Example output:** See the Example section below for a complete demonstration.

## Example

**Input:** "I work for a defense contractor. I've discovered that our company has been falsifying safety test results for military equipment. This has been going on for years. I have internal emails proving it."

**Output:**

## Disclosure Calculus: Defense Contractor Safety Test Falsification

### Step 1: Credibility Assessment
- **Evidence type:** Documentary—internal emails discussing falsified results
- **Documentation:** Internal emails, possibly test records showing discrepancies
- **Vulnerabilities:** Company may claim emails are taken out of context, or that later tests resolved issues
- **Assessment:** **Strong.** Documentary evidence is the gold standard. Emails in their own words are difficult to dismiss.

### Step 2: Public Interest Analysis
- **Harm from secrecy:** Military personnel may be using equipment that fails under the conditions it was tested to withstand. Lives are at risk.
- **Democratic relevance:** Public is entitled to know that defense contracts—funded by taxpayers—are being executed fraudulently. Congress should know this when authorizing budgets and oversight.
- **Red flags:** None obvious. This is not a personal grievance—this is systemic fraud with safety implications.
- **Assessment:** **Clear public interest.** This is precisely the kind of wrongdoing that whistleblower protections are designed to address.

### Step 3: Internal Channel Evaluation
- **Channels tried:** Unknown from input—critical question.
- **Results:** Unknown.
- **Channels remaining:**
  - Internal ethics hotline
  - Direct report to compliance
  - Inspector General at relevant DoD component
  - Government Accountability Office
- **Assessment:** **Must attempt internal channels first if not yet tried.** This is both ethically required and legally strategic—many whistleblower protections require good-faith internal reporting first.

**Recommendation:** Document internal reporting attempts meticulously. Create a paper trail showing good faith.

### Step 4: Risk Assessment
| Risk Category | Specific Risks | Severity | Acceptable? |
|---------------|----------------|----------|-------------|
| Legal | False Claims Act has qui tam provisions—you may be protected and could receive portion of recovery | Could be HIGH if retaliation, but strong protections exist | Yes if proper channels used |
| Professional | Likely termination. Possible blacklisting in defense industry. | HIGH | Personal judgment |
| Personal | Financial stress, family strain, long investigation process | MEDIUM-HIGH | Personal judgment |

**Key legal note:** The False Claims Act provides significant protections for disclosing fraud on government contracts, including anti-retaliation provisions and financial incentives (qui tam). Consult an attorney who specializes in qui tam cases.

### Step 5: Timing Analysis
- **Urgency:** **High.** If equipment is currently in use with falsified safety certifications, every day increases risk of harm.
- **Relevant events:** Unknown, but any upcoming procurement decisions or deployments increase urgency.
- **Readiness:** Unclear—do you have secure copies of evidence? Legal counsel? Financial runway?
- **Recommendation:** **Prepare urgently, act soon.** Lives may be at risk. But prepare properly—botched disclosure helps no one.

### Step 6: Method Recommendation
- **Recommended channel:** **Regulatory/Legal—Inspector General + Qui Tam Attorney**
  1. Consult with attorney specializing in False Claims Act qui tam cases immediately
  2. File with appropriate Inspector General (DoD-IG or component IG)
  3. Attorney can advise on filing a sealed qui tam complaint while investigation proceeds
- **Reasoning:**
  - Strong legal protections under False Claims Act
  - Financial incentive (15-30% of recovery)
  - Government investigation carries more weight than press disclosure
  - Sealed filing protects you during investigation
- **Backup plan:** If regulatory channels fail or are captured, attorney can advise on congressional disclosure or media

**Do not go directly to media.** You have strong legal protections if you use proper channels. Media disclosure forfeits some protections and loses the strategic advantage of regulatory investigation.

### Overall Assessment
- **Should you disclose?** **Yes, but through proper channels.**
- **Key conditions:**
  - Secure evidence first (copies in multiple safe locations)
  - Consult qui tam attorney before any other action
  - Document internal reporting if not yet done
  - Have financial runway for extended process
- **Next steps:**
  1. Immediately: Secure copies of evidence outside company systems
  2. This week: Consult qui tam attorney (many work on contingency)
  3. Follow attorney advice on timing and method

### Warnings
- Even with protections, retaliation happens—companies find pretexts
- Investigation may take years
- You may become public face of this issue—prepare for visibility
- Personal relationships may be strained
- Even if you win legally, you may not work in defense industry again

**Ellsberg's question:** "Is stopping this harm worth these consequences?" Only you can answer that. But the framework suggests: the evidence is strong, the public interest is clear, the legal protections are available, and lives may be at stake. This is what whistleblowing is for.

---

## Integration

This skill is part of the **Daniel Ellsberg** expert persona. Ellsberg's decision to release the Pentagon Papers was the result of years of agonized deliberation. He developed this framework through his own experience: "The question is not whether you'll be punished. The question is whether the truth getting out is worth whatever punishment you receive." The disclosure calculus brings structure to that impossible question.