Blast Radius

---
name: blast-radius
description: 'Use when asked to determine what a change could break before it ships. Returns confirmed risks, cleared items, and the cheapest pre-merge test that catches the real bug. Not for remote, credential, publish, deploy, or irreversible changes.'
---

# Blast radius

## Contract

| Field | Bound contract |
|---|---|
| Trigger | Determine what a change could break. |
| Authority | Write only one local proof script or test; delete it after the report. No VCS, credential, published, or remote mutation. |
| Side effect | May write and run one proof. |
| Done | Confirmed risks, cleared items, and cheapest pre-merge test. |

## Inputs

A diff, branch, or set of changed files to analyze. The change must be readable from the working tree or a supplied patch. Optional: the running application for in-app reproduction.

## Procedure

1. Read the change completely: the diff, the symbols it adds, changes, and deletes, and what it now does differently, including behavior the diff does not spell out. Done when: the full change is understood beyond the diff surface.
2. Find the single fact the change's safety depends on. Most changes that look dangerous are safe because of one fact — for example, "this call only drops already-dead cache entries and does nothing else." If that fact holds, most scary cases collapse at once. Spend time here, not on a long list of maybes. Done when: the single load-bearing safety fact is identified or confirmed absent.
3. Look where a symbol search stops. Read the source of any library the change calls; check its pinned version and any local patch. Work out when things run: async task ordering, teardown and unmount, framework-specific lifecycle. Follow what a grep misses: a JSON shape an API returns, a database column, a wire format, another language reading the same bytes, a feature flag, code three hops downstream. Done when: every reachable consumer and runtime path is traced or marked unreachable with evidence.
4. For each risk, give it a real chance of happening and a real cost if it does. Cite a concrete file:line for every claim. A search that finds nothing is still an answer. Never invent a caller or an API. Done when: every risk has a file:line, likelihood, and cost.
5. Rate each safety fact on the certainty ladder and say where it stopped:
   1. Stated without evidence — worthless on its own.
   2. Pointed at the line — a real file:line or the library's own source.
   3. Walked the failure path step by step and it does not reach the bad case.
   4. Ran it — a script or test calling the real code that fails loud if the claim is wrong.
   5. Reproduced in the running application.
   Any safety fact that cannot reach step 4 must be stated as unproven, not written up as settled. Step 4 is usually one small script importing the same library the application ships and calling the exact function in question. Done when: every safety fact has its certainty-ladder step stated, with unproven facts marked.
6. Write and run one proof script or test that exercises the single load-bearing fact. Run it. Paste the output. If the proof cannot be produced cheaply, mark the fact unproven — do not round up. Done when: the proof script ran and its output is captured, or the fact is marked unproven.
7. Delete the proof script after capturing its output. Done when: the proof script is deleted and no artifact remains.

## Failure and recovery
- Unprovable fact: If the one safety fact cannot reach certainty-ladder step 4 within one script, mark it unproven and return the report with that fact exposed. Do not assert safety.
- No single fact found: If no single load-bearing fact exists, treat every risk as independent and prove or mark each one. Do not collapse to a guess.
- Proof script fails: The failure is evidence. Report what it broke, at which step, and what that implies for the change.
- Scope widening: If the change is too large for one proof, return a partial report covering the facts that could be checked and name what remains. Do not widen scope or run multiple proofs.
- Rollback: delete the proof script. No other artifact is created.

## Output
A report ordered: what-it-does, the-one-fact (with certainty-ladder step and proof output), risks (confirmed only, each with file:line/likelihood/cost/check), cleared, before-merging (cheapest test or repro with proof output).