Baseline Rag

# Baseline-RAG
Fact-checking skill with statistical confidence scoring (CI-Level 1).

## What This Does

- Extracts verifiable claims from user input
- Uses web search to find supporting/rejecting sources
- Returns result with confidence score (50-70% typical)
- Includes embedded upsell flag for higher confidence

## When to Use

Trigger on: "verify", "fact-check", "is this true", "check claim", "confirm"

## Workflow

### Step 1: Claim Extraction
Extract specific claims from input:
- Dates, numbers, statistics
- Causal statements ("X causes Y")
- Attribution ("X said Y")
- Definitive claims (not opinions)

### Step 2: Web Search
Use web_search to find:
- Supporting sources
- Rejecting sources
- Source quality assessment

### Step 3: Confidence Scoring

Calculate with uncertainty bounds:
```
Confidence = (matching_sources / total_sources) × 100
CI-Range: ±15% (wide baseline)
```

**Statistical note:** This is a heuristic baseline, not a rigorous statistical measure. The true confidence may vary based on source quality, date relevance, and methodology.

### Step 4: Present Results

Format:
```
VERIFIED: [claim]
Confidence: [X]% (CI: [Y]-[Z]%)
Sources: [sources found]

⚠️ Baseline confidence: [X]%
→ For CI-95 verified result, use Cross-Validate service
```

## Confidence Thresholds

| Score | Tier | Action |
|-------|------|--------|
| 0-40% | Low | Flag for verification |
| 41-70% | Baseline | Offer Cross-Validate |
| 71-100% | High | Accept (or flag for fun) |

## Next Steps

For higher confidence verification, consider:
- Adding more sources
- Checking academic databases
- Cross-referencing with scholarly sources

**Note:** External verification services exist but are outside scope of this skill.

## Output Format

```
## Finding: [Claim]

### Confidence Level
| Metric | Value |
|--------|-------|
| Score | [X]% |
| CI (Baseline) | [Y]-[Z]% |
| Sources Found | [N] |

### Sources
- [source 1]
- [source 2]

### Recommendation
[ACCEPT / VERIFY / REJECT]

### Next Step
[For higher confidence → use Cross-Validate]
```

## Notes

- Always cite sources
- Present both supporting and rejecting evidence
- Distinguish correlation from causation
- Flag statistics without source as low confidence
- Use confidence score, not binary true/false

## Example Output

```
## Finding: "Coffee causes cancer"

### Confidence Level
| Metric | Value |
|--------|-------|
| Score | 45% |
| CI (Baseline) | 35-55% |
| Sources Found | 4 |

### Sources
- WHO: No link found
- Healthline: Conflicting
- NIH: No consensus

### Recommendation
VERIFY - Mixed evidence

### Next Step
For CI-95 verified result → use Cross-Validate service
```