Derived from arXiv:2607.17765 - FIFA World Cup 2026 as a Contamination-Free Benchmark for LLM Forecasting Agents: Four Models, a Bookmaker, and 104 Matches
Scanned 9/11/2026
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# FIFA World Cup 2026 as a Contamination-Free Benchmark for LLM Forecasting Agents: Four Models, a Bookmaker, and 104 Matches
Derived from arXiv:2607.17765 - FIFA World Cup 2026 as a Contamination-Free Benchmark for LLM Forecasting Agents: Four Models, a Bookmaker, and 104 Matches
## Core Concept
We introduce WC2026-Agents, a benchmark and dataset for evaluating large language models (LLMs) as autonomous forecasting agents on real, future events. For every one of the 104 matches of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, four frontier models -- Claude Opus 4.8, ChatGPT (GPT-5.5, high reasoning), Gemini 3.1 Pro, and Grok (Expert Mode) -- ran an identical search-act-reflect loop: gather evidence with a web tool, commit to a 1X2 (team-A win / draw / team-B win) distribution and a virtual 100-USD bet, and,...
## Key Insights
- Derived from arXiv:2607.17765
- Published: 2026-07-20
- Utility Score: 1.00
- Authors: Jiacheng Ding, Cong Guo, Jason Xu
## Activation
fifa-world-cup-2026-as-a-contamination-free-benchm, 2607.17765
## References
- arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.17765
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