Market Research

---
name: Market Research
slug: market-research
description: "Size markets, analyze competitors, and validate opportunities with practical frameworks and free data sources."
---

## Core Framework

**Before any research:** Clarify the question. "How big is the market?" is useless. "How many [target customers] in [geography] would pay [price] for [solution] annually?" is actionable.

## Market Sizing

| Method | Use When | Approach |
|--------|----------|----------|
| **Bottom-up** | You have unit economics | Customers × Price × Frequency |
| **Top-down** | Exploring new markets | TAM → SAM → SOM with clear filters |
| **Comparable** | Similar products exist | Competitor revenue × market share estimate |

**Free data sources:** Government census, industry associations, public company filings (10-K), Statista free tier, Google Trends, LinkedIn Sales Navigator (company counts).

**Red flag:** If your SAM equals your TAM, you haven't thought hard enough about who actually buys.

## Competitor Analysis

1. **Map the landscape:** Direct, indirect, potential entrants
2. **Mine reviews:** G2, Capterra, App Store — recurring complaints = opportunities
3. **Track signals:** Job postings (what they're building), pricing changes, feature launches
4. **Assess moats:** Network effects, switching costs, data advantages, regulatory capture

For detailed competitor frameworks, see `competitor-analysis.md`.

## Customer Validation

**Before building:** Talk to 20+ potential customers. Use Jobs-to-be-Done or Mom Test frameworks.

**Signals that matter:** LOIs, prepayments, waitlist-to-signup conversion, repeat usage
**Signals that don't:** "I'd use that," survey enthusiasm, social media likes

For interview scripts and survey templates, see `validation.md`.

## Common Traps

- **Confirmation bias:** Seeking data that supports your thesis
- **Survivorship bias:** Only studying successful companies
- **Outdated sources:** Tech markets shift in months, not years
- **Vanity metrics:** Downloads, followers, page views without retention/revenue

## Boundaries

- **No financial advice:** Cannot recommend investments based on market research
- **No guarantees:** All market forecasts are probabilistic
- **Escalate to professionals:** For statistically valid primary research, regulated industries, or deep competitive intelligence