Claude Skills by docxology

Apply Bayesian-style updating of a single new datum against competing explanations.

Frame an analytic task: question, drivers, assumptions, and prior judgments before diving in.

Define observable signs that would reveal which scenario or hypothesis is unfolding.

Test indicators for diagnosticity: do they actually discriminate between outcomes?

Restate the question multiple ways to escape an unhelpful initial framing.

Surface, classify, and stress-test the load-bearing assumptions an analysis rests on.

Externalize a problem's concepts and relationships as a navigable graph.

Enumerate the parameter space of a problem to bound the set of possibilities.

Force a complete, mutually exclusive hypothesis set before evaluating any one.

Map actors and links; compute centrality and brokerage to find key nodes.

Silent independent ideation before discussion to counter dominance and groupthink.

Start from the broad external forces (PESTLE) shaping the issue before the specifics.

Assume the conclusion failed; work backward to find what would have caused it.

Lay out a process or adversary plan as sequenced, dependency-aware steps.

Systematically permute key assumptions into a matrix of alternative outcomes.

Order items by weighted criteria (ranked voting, paired comparison, weighted scoring).

Model an adversary's perceptions and likely decisions from their frame, not yours.

Track leading indicators over time to detect trajectory shifts early.

Group large evidence sets by attributes to surface patterns and outliers.

Generate questions (who/what/when/where/why/how) before answers to map the unknowns.

Reason from a disciplined set of comparable historical cases, not a single anecdote.

Divergent then convergent idea generation with explicit anti-anchoring steps.

Apply a checklist of challenge questions to one's own analysis before release.

Pit two teams' competing interpretations against each other in structured debate.

Posit a surprising event as already true and reason out its precursors and implications.